EURUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 1.1996 High Jan 29
- RES 3: 1.1929 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1857 High Feb 18
- RES 1: 1.1797/1849 High May 06 / Apr 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1769 @ 16:32 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 1.1655 Low Apr 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.1590 Low Apr 8
- SUP 3: 1.1505 Low Apr 6 and a key S/T support
- SUP 4: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
A key support in EURUSD at the 50-day EMA - at 1.1686 - has recently been pierced but for now remains intact. A clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger S/T reversal and open 1.1505, the Apr 6 low. While the EMA support holds, the trend structure is bullish. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 1.1849, the Apr 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-March.
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EURUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.1796 High Mar 2
- RES 3: 1.1746 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1707 High Mar 3
- RES 1: 1.1633 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1572 @ 16:41 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1340 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
The trend theme in EURUSD remains bearish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. Gains are considered corrective. Note that a bullish engulfing candle on Mar 31 - a short-term reversal signal - still highlights potential for a stronger corrective bounce near-term. Resistance to watch is 1.1633, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.1411, the Mar 13 and 16 low.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 3Y
- WI has eased slightly ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CQJ3) cut-off at 1300ET.
- 3Y WI is currently at 3.890% from 3.907%, 31.1bp cheap to last month's tail: 3.579% high yield vs. 3.568% WI.
OPTIONS: Sonia Put Selling Joins Call Structure Buying In Post-Holiday Trade
Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- DUK6 105.50/105.20ps, bought for 5.75 in 5k vs 105.73
- RXK6 126.5/127/127.5c ladder, bought for 1 in 3.5k
- SFIM6 96.25/96.35/96.45c fly, bought for 0.75 in 2k
- SFIZ6 94.50p, sold at 8.5 in 10.5k
- SFIM7 97.50/98.00cs, bought for 2 in 4.5k
