HUNGARY: Trade Balance Confirmed to Have Dipped into Deficit in December
Mar-01 08:14
- Hungary had a EUR 271m trade deficit in December, the first negative balance in close to a year, a second reading of data released by the statistics office confirmed. Exports slipped 9.1% y/y while imports dropped 9.0% y/y. The statistics office noted that energy imports had climbed 56.8% in December on the back of higher deliveries of gas, while exports of machinery and transport equipment fell 12.7%.
- Meanwhile, Hungary's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in February from a revised 50.1 in January (Est: 49.0), according to Halpim. Among the sub-indices, the new orders index rose and was over the 50-point mark, as was the production volume index. The employment index fell and indicated a contraction.
- Speaking at an event yesterday evening, finance minister Varga said the government expects GDP to grow 3-4% this year, adding that growth could be aided with the tools of tax policy, MTI report. Varga said the budget had "adapted well" in recent years but conceded that the 2023 budget deficit was expected to be over the target because of the higher cost of debt servicing and dearer energy.
- Prime Minister Orban will speak at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey about foreign policy at 15:45GMT/16:45CET. There are no other major economic releases on the docket for the remainder of the day, with the final reading of Q4-2023 GDP, CPI, industrial production, retail sales and trade balance figures all set to cross next wee
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EQUITIES: Tech stocks gap lower
Jan-31 08:12
- As expected a small gap lowed for Tech stock (SX8P) in Stoxx600, but the index is overall still a touch in the green into the open, following the French data and the rally in Futures markets.
- Worst performing sector is Retail, down 1.68% on the open.
- Basic resources, Insurance and Travel are the leading sectors.
GILTS: Domestic Fiscal Matters & Wider Inputs Support
Jan-31 08:11
The combination of the wider overnight impulses flagged earlier (see our SONIA bullet for more) and softer-than-expected headline French CPI readings help gilt futures higher to start the day.
- Local fiscal matters will also be feeding in, after The Times reported that Chancellor Hunt has “warned the cabinet that tax cuts in the spring budget may be smaller than expected because of “major structural weaknesses” in the economy.” This could curtail expectations re: meaningful fiscal easing which had become more prominent post-Autumn Statement/in recent weeks.
- Gilt futures showed through yesterday’s best levels but couldn’t breach 99.60, backing off to trade +57 at 99.45 last (highs of 99.57 seen).
- Cash gilt yields are 4-5bp lower with a light flattening bias seen.
- SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS are loosely in line with pre-gilt open levels (flagged in an earlier bullet), with the former running flat to +6.5 through the blues, while the latter is little changed to 3.5bp softer on the day through ’24 contracts.
- Lower tier local data has seen an uptick in the Lloyds Business Barometer and firmer-than-expected Nationwide House Price Index readings.
- The local docket is thin to empty for the remainder of the day, which will leave focus on pre-BoE adjustments and cross-market inputs.
- Click for our full BoE preview.
EGB SYNDICATION: Italy 15-year Benchmark: Guidance
Jan-31 08:07
- EUR Benchmark Long 15Y Fixed (Oct. 1, 2039) BTPS+13 Area
- Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act
- Benchmark Security: BTPS 3.25% 3/2038
- Issuer: Italy Buoni Poliennali Del Tesoro (BTPS)
- Ratings: Baa3/BBB/BBB/BBBH (Moody's/S&P/Fitch/DBRS)
- Format: Reg S, dematerialized, registered, senior unsecured, 144a eligible, CAC
- Settlement: Feb. 7, 2024
- Denoms: 1k x 1k
- Bookrunners: Barclays, BNPP (B&D), Citi, IMI, MS
- Note: Will pay full first coupon on April 1, 2024 (accruing from Oct. 1, 2023)
- Target Market: Eligible counterparties, professional clients and retail clients (all distribution channels)
(Details as per Bloomberg)
