BUNDS: Today's US Data will be delayed, early focus on EU Supply
- US Data will be delayed Today, and the only expected release will be the US Challenger Job Cut Data due at 12.30BST.
- For the German Bund, there's very little change so far this Week, the gap support of 128.26 held Yesterday, printed a 128.24 Low, and the initial resistance noted at 128.82 was untested, only managing a 128.79 high Yesterday.
- Instead, Immediate focus should be given to Equities as trader boost Rate Cut bets following Yesterday's US Data, brushing aside some of the Government shutdown Risks.
- European and US Equities are printing new all time record highs in the Estoxx and the Emini and wider Indices going into the European session.
- Data wise, we get the Swiss CPI and the UK DMP, and as mentioned only the US Challenger Data for Today.
- SUPPLY: Early focus will be on Supply, Spain 4s, 7s, 15s, France 10s, 20s, 40s, UK £4.5bn 10yr (equates to 41k Gilt) this is heavy and will weigh into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: BoJ Uchida, ECB Makhlouf, Villeroy, Guindos, Fed Logan, Goolsbee.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.06/71.93 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.56 @ 07:08 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are trading higher. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Italy is likely to hold a syndicated transaction today and Germany will hold an auction. Germany, Spain and France are also due to hold auctions later in the week while Belgium will hold an ORI operation as well as closing its latest Bons d’ Etat retail offering. The EFSF kicked off issuance for the week yesterday with a syndicated transaction. We pencil in issuance of E41.7bln for the week (excluding retail) up a little from E29.5bln last week.
- Italy sent a mandate for a dual tranche 7/30-year syndication that is likely to be held today. On offer will be a new 7-year Nov-32 BTP and E5bln WNG of a new 30-year Oct-55 BTP. MNI pencils in E5-10bln to be sold of the 7-year line (with risks skewed towards E7-8bln).
- MNI had noted the potential for Italian syndication in September, specifically flagging a 30-year BTP being a possible candidate, possibly alongside either a 7-year BTP or 10-year BTP.
- The MEF subsequently cancelled the auctions of 7/15+ year BTPs at the auction scheduled for Thursday 11 September.
- Germany will kick off auction issuance for the week today, selling E4.5bln of the 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22106).
BTP TECHS: (U5) Support Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.75 High Aug 21
- PRICE: 119.93 @ Close Sep 1
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a broad range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.
