LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, CPI, Bond Sale, Fed Speak
Oct-12 10:14
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Oct-12 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (207k, 210k)
- Oct-12 0830 Continuing Claims (1.664M, 1.676M)
- Oct-12 0830 CPI MoM (0.6%, 0.3%), YoY (3.7%, 3.6%)
- Oct-12 0830 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.3%), YoY (4.3%, 4.1%)
- Oct-12 0830 CPI Index NSA (307.026, 307.450)
- Oct-12 0830 CPI Core Index SA (309.661, 310.604)
- Oct-12 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (0.5%, --)
- Oct-12 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.2% rev, --)
- Oct-12 1000 Dallas Fed Logan welcoming remarks, no Q&A
- Oct-12 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W, $85B 8W Bill auctions
- Oct-12 1300 US Tsy $20B 30Y Bond reopen
- Oct-12 1300 Atl Fed Bostic welcoming remarks, no Q&A
- Oct-12 1400 Monthly Budget Statement (-$429.8B, -$146.0B)
- Oct-12 1600 Boston Fed Collins, banking conf, moderated Q&A
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Treasury Auctions
Sep-12 10:11
Another slow day ahead, data doesn't pick up until Wednesday with the release of August CPI.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Sep-12 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.3 reported vs. 91.9 prior
- Sep-12 1130 US Tsy $60B 42D Bill CMB
- Sep-12 1300 US Tsy $35B 10Y Note auction reopen (91282CHT1)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Flag Formation
Sep-12 10:09
- In FX, EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. The bull channel breakout last week reinforced the current bearish condition and has opened 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. The channel is drawn from the Mar 15 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Initial resistance is at 1.0795, the former channel base.
- The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south. Last week’s breach of 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 1.2433, Jun 8 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2613, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is 1.2548.
- The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, was breached last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. A break of this level is required to highlight a short-term top.
US TSYS: Cross-Market Inputs Cancel Out, Tight Ranges In Play Ahead Of NY Hours
Sep-12 10:07
The combination of the move away from best levels in EGBS & Gilts post-German ZEW data and slightly firmer oil prices keeps Tsys in tight ranges pre-NY, capping the modest spill over bid derived from Gilts post-UK labour market data.
- TYZ3 holds to a very narrow 0-05 band as a result, last +0-01+, with Monday’s high located just above best levels of the session.
- Cash Tsys run flat to 1.5bp richer, with a modest flattening impulse seen.
- Little in the way of pre-NY movement in FOMC-dated OIS. Terminal pricing of 5.46% come December remains evident on the strip, before 36bp of cuts are priced through June ’24.
- NFIB small business optimism data has crossed, with the familiar early news wire release evident. The index softened a little more than the BBG survey consensus expected, although the deterioration vs. the month prior was relatively small, with the index comfortably below the 100 level.
- 10-Year Tsy supply headlines a limited NY docket, with headline flow surrounding GOP-based impeachment discussions and the risk of a government shutdown also on the radar.
