MACRO ANALYSIS: Threat Of More Penal Tariffs On Autos & Pharma Downplayed [1/2]
Feb-19 15:31
- US President Trump’s latest threats late yesterday on large tariffs on autos (“in the neighborhood of 25%”) and pharmaceuticals and semiconductors (“25% and higher”) hasn’t been met with the same growth-negative market reaction in EU rates today as in previous episodes.
- On top of the offsetting theme from prospects of notable increases in EU defense spending, the continued pushing back of effective dates is also likely at play. The latest date of Apr 2 is a further delay from previously focused tariffs on iron/steel & aluminium (due Mar 12) and it tallies with the proposed report on reciprocal tariffs due Apr 1, with previously discussions potentially getting rolled up into these early April deadlines/discussions.
- The assumption seems to be that this is a continuation of a Trump’s negotiation strategy of proposing penal policies in order to strike a deal, but if these tariffs do start to grow in likelihood then it’s worth noting that the latest proposals are far more damaging than those on iron/steel & aluminium.
- EU exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to the US were worth 0.7% of EU GDP in 2024 whilst vehicle exports were worth 0.3% GDP vs just 0.1% GDP for iron/steel & aluminium.
- With Trump also focused on trade imbalances, the EU sees sizeable trade surpluses of 0.4% GDP (pharma), 0.2% GDP (vehicles) and 0.0% GDP (iron/steel & aluminium).
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