SWEDEN: This Morning's Data Releases Lean Hawkish

Several Swedish data points were released this morning. April activity data (retail sales, lending growth) appears to have been resilient despite the significant trade uncertainty stemming from the US liberation day announcement and fallout. Meanwhile, wage growth decelerated in line with the 2025 collective agreements. Overall, the data leans in favour of a cautious Riksbank on June 18, despite increasing expectations for a 25bp cut. The May inflation report (flash release on June 5) will be key in shaping consensus ahead of that decision. A reminder that the final Q1 GDP report is due on Friday.

• The recovery in retail sales extended in April, rising 0.9% M/M (vs an upwardly revised 0.7% prior). The median analyst projection was 0.2%. This sees 3m/3m growth tick up to 1.1%, from 0.8% in March and 2.0% in February. Retail sales continue to correlate closely with retail sentiment in the Economic Tendency Indicator.
• Household and corporate lending growth continued to rise in April. Household lending (the majority of which is mortgages) ticked up to 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.1% prior), the highest since March 2023. Non-financial corporate lending growth was 1.5% Y/Y (vs 0.5% prior). That’s up from a low of -2.5% in July/August 2024.
• Whole economy wages eased to 3.4% Y/Y in March, from 3.8% in February. This is in line with the 2025 union wage agreement, which came into effect from April.
• The April goods trade surplus was SEK6.6bln (vs SEK11.2bln prior). In trend terms, the surplus rose for a sixth consecutive month to SEK8.2bln (vs SEK7.4bln prior). Exports to the US are only available as of March, but rose to the highest since September 2023 at SEK19.0bln – a possible sign of tariff frontloading.