BOBL: The spread is seeing some selling interest

• So far the M/Ms are coming in in between 0.4% and 0.5%, except Lower Saxony at 0.3%.
• The Y/Ys run a bit of a wider range, in between 1.8% and 2.4%.
• National CPI (non-HICP) expectations were for a 0.3% M/M increase and for the Y/Y print to decelerate 0.2pp to 2.0%.
• This means that from the M/M, there should be some slight upside risks to consensus CPI - but note that we haven't received all state-level data quite yet, so take that call with a pinch of salt.
• For HICP (which doesn't always follow surprises in the national CPI), the consensus made ahead of these releases was for 0.4% M/M and a 0.2ppt Y/Y deceleration to 2.1%.
• We will follow up with more detailed analysis in due course.

Norges Bank May FX transactions - light NOK buying for the second consecutive month, but shouldnt have a meaningful impact on spot FX: "In May 2025, the daily net sales of foreign exchange for these purposes will amount to NOK 76 million. The net amount arises from Norges Bank needing to purchase foreign currency equivalent to 50 million NOK per day on behalf of the state while simultaneously needing to sell foreign currency equivalent to 126 million NOK per day to fund the transfer of dividends to the government".

The Q1 Bank Lending Survey also released: 

• "Household and corporate credit demand increased somewhat in 2025 Q1. Banks reported some easing of credit standards related to first-home mortgages as a result of changes to the Lending Regulations".
• "Corporate lending rates have fallen somewhat more than expected, while lending spreads narrowed slightly. Banks reported a fairly strong increase in competition for corporate loans and a slight increase in competition for residential mortgages".
• "Banks expect broadly unchanged household and corporate demand in Q2"
• The survey follows this morning's March credit data, which ticked up to 3.8% Y/Y vs 3.6% prior.

• MNI: BADEN WUERT APR CPI +0.5% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y