USDCAD TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 162.14 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 161.95 High Jul’24
• RES 2: 161.81 High Jun 18
• RES 1: 161.33 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 161.29 @ 16:51 BST Jun 19
• SUP 1: 159.78 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 159.11 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 158.30/157.32 Low May 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 156.69 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’ 25 low

The USD rally on the back of the Fed meeting put the price cleanly through the bull trigger at 160.72 - and momentum has kept up with new cycle high print of 161.81. While the level failed to hold, this shows the market’s willingness to push the pair to new higher highs, even as concern remains over intervention risks. The next historical level sits at 161.95, the July 2024 high, with vol-bands layered between 161.33 - 162.14.

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8682 High May 29
• PRICE: 0.8671 @ 16:50 BST Jun 19
• SUP 1: 0.8618 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

EURGBP crept higher Thursday, putting the cross at the best levels of the month so far - but still south of May levels. This keeps the consolidation phase intact for now, although trend signals remain bearish. Key support to watch is 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. A clear breach of it would highlight an important M/T bearish breakout. Key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. Initial firm resistance is 0.8658, the 50-day EMA, recently pierced. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term bullish development.

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