USDCAD TECHS: Testing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28  
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5 
• RES 1: 1.3912/1.3956 High Aug 31 / 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3858 @ 20:39 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.3732 Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3672 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 1.3620 Low May 7

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and recent short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle lows confirmed an extension of the bear leg and this reinforces current conditions. Key resistance to monitor is 1.3956, the 50-day EMA. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull leg. 1.3817, 61.8% of the May 1 - Jun 24 downleg, has been breached. This opens the 76.4% level at 1.3715.

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.07/128.42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 125.91 @ 20:12 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 125.91/88 - Low Aug 17 and 31
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

Resistance in JGB futures remains intact and the trend structure is bearish. The latest downleg had resulted in the contract piercing support at 125.91, the Aug 17 low. This move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal a short-term reversal and would highlight a break of the 50-dma - at 127.07.

*TRUMP: IRAN STRIKES WILL BE LIMITED - bbg 

*TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN EXTREMELY GOOD SHAPE 

*TRUMP: A LOT OF OIL COMING OUT OF HORMUZ 

*TRUMP: AVERAGING 30 SHIPS A NIGHT OUT OF HORMUZ