TECHNOLOGY: TMT: Week In Review

Major EGB futures have drifted higher through the session, with Bund futures now +47 ticks at 134.22. The contract has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs and a continuation higher would be a bullish development, highlighting a possible reversal.

• First resistance in Bund futures is 134.48, the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg.
• German cash yields are 4 to 4.5bps lower today.
• We noted on Monday that Eurozone net issuance is expected to be negative for the next three weeks, which may provide some underlying support to EGBs in the absence of fundamental drivers.
• E22.5bln from the 0% Oct-24 Bobl was available for reinvestment from today.
• 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are mixed, with BTPs and GGBs outperforming.
• The BTP/Bund spread has tightened over 25bps since the start of September (when the spread optically widened due to a 10-year BTP benchmark roll on BBG), reaching a low of 122bps this afternoon.
• The ECB decision headlines tomorrow’s regional calendar. MNI’s preview is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3BMdOKb

The far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) has threatened to vote down the gov't budget if its demands are not taken on board by the gov't of PM Michel Barnier. This leaves the gov't in a difficult position. On one hand it acquiesces to the RN demands, risking reputational damage by working with the far-right and risking efforts to cut the budget deficit. On the other, it pushes through the budget using Article 49.3 of the constitution, risking a no-confidence vote. 

• Barnier survived a no-confidence vote earlier in the month with RN abstaining. However, should RN vote with the leftist New Popular Front it would see the gov't defeated.
• Reuters: "The RN presented on Wednesday its own "counter-budget", claiming its proposals would yield extra savings of 15 billion euros next year by cutting some social welfare payments for foreigners and increasing taxes on share buybacks and the wealthy, among other measures."
• As Le Monde notes by 1700CET (1100ET, 1600BST) the National Assembly's "Finance Committee must vote to request its transformation into a committee of inquiry into the reasons for the budgetary slippage, forecast at 6.1% of GDP this year, or 50 billion euros more than the 4.4% voted last year, before beginning debates on the budget." Should the inquiry committee be formed, it will further delay the debate on the budget and the 1,700 associated amendments (a proportion of which will be deemed inadmissible by the time debate begins). The process is likely to continue until mid-December.