USDCAD TECHS: Support Intact

Next week's key scheduled US data/events:

• US macro focus turns to Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report for June, a day earlier than usual owing to the Independence Day holiday. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made it clear that the Fed’s focus is on price stability and sounded less concerned about any conflict with what’s been a resilient labor market. That could limit market reaction to the NFP report although we thought the same ahead of last month’s May release only for a far stronger than expected set of payrolls figures to spark a sizeable hawkish reaction.
• Early consensus currently looks for a 113k increase in nonfarm payrolls in June after the 172k in May, albeit with a more similar pace for private payrolls at 124k after 120k.
• The unemployment rate meanwhile could hold at a rounded 4.3% for a fourth consecutive month, most recently at 4.30% in May for still close to the 4.34% averaged in 3Q25 ahead of the government shutdown that sparked some volatility.
• Higher frequency indicators such as the weekly ADP pulse and jobless claims have pointed to some softening compared to a month ago although they are still at relatively solid levels. One area that will continue to be watched is the concentration of payrolls growth –private payrolls ex health & social assistance increased 73k in May along with a three-month average of 100k although food & drinking places have been carrying this somewhat along with transportation & warehousing.
• The Fed's Warsh will also appear in a panel on Wednesday at the ECB’s Sintra Forum along with BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde and the BoC's Macklem. On the evidence of last week's press conference, it didn't sound like he was an advocate of the next move being a cut to say the least. Most of the content was very much hawkish, in contrast to some expectations that he would hew to a more dovish view than the median of the FOMC even if he didn't express an outright directional view on policy. He was however highly reluctant to offer any guidance whilst also focusing on five task forces looking at various areas of potential reform.
• We again watch for any Supreme Court ruling in the Fed Governor Cook case with potential for a decision on Monday or later in the week ahead of the long weekend. SCOTUS Justices sounded skeptical of the government’s case in the January oral hearing, and prediction markets imply only a small chance (~5% on Kalshi) she will leave the Fed this year.

From our US Macro Weekly: The limited Fed commentary that we have received since the June FOMC meeting has leaned hawkish overall, in keeping with the rise in the Dots to show limited prospects for near-term easing and a large contingent looking for a hike by year-end with inflation clearly the dominant concern. 

• Minneapolis’s Kashkari (2026 FOMC voter) shifted from penciling in one 2026 cut in March to one 2026 hike in June, citing broader inflation pressures beyond the Middle East, tariffs, energy and AI/data-center investment; Chicago’s Goolsbee also warned inflation is too high and “going the wrong way,” especially services inflation (though he puzzlingly suggested that the latest data showed some hope on the inflation front).
• NY’s Williams (permanent voter) offered the relatively less hawkish counterpoint, arguing policy is “well positioned.” He sees the economy and labor market as resilient, expects inflation to edge down as tariff, energy and shelter pressures ease, and appears consistent with a dot near the current funds rate for end-2026 rather than an outright hike. Even so, his commentary appeared a little more cautious than the last time we heard from him in May, especially given the
• Despite Kashkari’s signalling of his Dots, a common theme we expect to hear in coming weeks is an acceptance of reduced forward guidance under new chair Warsh. Goolsbee explicitly backed the effort to avoid speculating about rate paths.