RATINGS: Stable Outlooks Up For Review After Close
Jul-10 10:28
{WO}🗓 RATINGS: Sovereign rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch on the Netherlands (current rating: Aaa; Outlook Stable)
- Morningstar DBRS on Switzerland (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend)
- Scope Ratings on Finland (current rating: AA; Outlook Stable) & Japan (current rating: A; Outlook Stable)
- Please use Hidden PDF to access the indicative 2026 sovereign rating review schedules across the five most prominent rating agencies (Fitch, Moody's, S&P, Morningstar DBRS & Scope Ratings).
- Note that the schedules are indicative only and ratings can be reviewed on an ad-hoc basis.
- Rating agencies may also adjust their schedules during the year.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: May CPI Inflation, Tsy 10Y Note Re-Open
Jun-10 10:24
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 06/10 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-2.5%, --)
- 06/10 0830 CPI MoM (0.6%, 0.5%), YoY (3.8%, 4.2%)
- 06/10 0830 Core CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.8%, 2.9%)
- 06/10 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-0.3%, --), Weekly (-0.2%, --)
- 06/10 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 06/10 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CQQ7)
- 06/10 1400 Federal Budget Balance ($215B, -$283.1B)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: US Rates Awaiting CPI Report, 25bp Hike Seen In Dec
Jun-10 10:20
- US rates are little changed overnight with contained broad market reaction to the US and Iran trading strikes.
- They broadly consolidate yesterday’s rally although still price a 25bp hike in December ahead of today’s US CPI report for May as they continue to reflect the significant hawkish impulse from Friday’s NFP report.
- MNI US CPI Preview: https://mni.marketnews.com/4unpjNy
- FF cumulative hikes from 3.62% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 4bp Jul, 11.5bp Sep, 15.5bp Oct, 25.5bp Dec building to 36.5bp Mar 2027 and 40bp Jun 2027.
- SOFR futures are up to 1 tick lower, with the peak implied yield of 4.06% (M7) remaining below Monday’s fresh high for the Iran conflict of 4.155%.
- The FOMC is in media blackout ahead of next week’s decision so no Fedspeak reaction to today’s report.
ITALY DATA: IP Rises Again in Apr, Continued Capital/Intermediate Goods Strength
Jun-10 10:08
Italy industrial production saw a third consecutive rise in April at 0.5% M/M sa (0.0% cons), after a 0.1ppt downwardly revised 0.6% M/M in March, for a continuation of the stronger end to Q1. The index is now at its highest level since March 2024, with April's rise driven by continued strength in capital and intermediate goods, alongside a partial rebound in consumer durables, while energy and consumer nondurables production fell relatively modestly.
- Capital goods production grew 1.0% M/M (2.1% prior), marking three months in positive territory and the highest index level since Feb 2024. Intermediate goods, meanwhile, were up 0.8% M/M (0.3% prior), also seeing three consecutive rises.
- Elsewhere, consumer goods dropped -0.1% M/M (-0.4% Mar), entirely on nondurables (-0.3% M/M after 0.1%), while durables partially rebounded from recent weakness (2.8% M/M after -4.2% Mar, -3.7% Feb).
- Energy production softened -0.2% M/M for three consecutive falls but slowing in pace (-1.2% Mar, -5.4% Feb). This is only the weakest level of output since last September, however.
- 3M/3M IP growth returned to positive at 0.2% (-0.2% prior) for the first time since January, with similar underlying moves to the monthly rate: strong capital and intermediate goods partially offset by continued weakness in consumer goods - while energy fell to negative at -4.1% 3M/3M (0.3% prior) as the monthly rise in January drops into the prior quarter.
- On an annual basis, IP grew 1.3% Y/Y wda (0.5% cons), after a 0.1ppt downward revised 1.4%. Here, the largest growth was in transport equipment (17.8% Y/Y), pharmaceuticals (7.9%) and machinery (6.1%), partly offset by falls in textiles (-8.9%), "other manufacturing" (-6.7%), wood/paper (-4.4%) and electricity/gas/steam/air conditioning supply (-3.6%).
