GILTS: Stabilising, Leaving Broad Week-To-Date Ranges Intact
Gilts have stabilised, looking to cross-market cues as bears once again fail to push U.S. 10-Year Tsy yields above 4.20%.
- Futures stick to the pre-existing week-to-date range, last -13 at 92.35, with initial support at 91.99 untested.
- Yields flat to 1bp higher on the day.
- Medium-term uptrend support held in 10-Year gilt yields despite several tests this week (intersects at 4.343% today, with the year-to-date low located just below at 4.336%.) with solid monthly UK GDP data and firmer natural gas prices then countering the rally seen in the first half of the week.
- Early ’26 gilt outperformance vs. swaps maintained despite the pullback from highs in recent sessions. Cash holdings being put to work/frontrunning of near-term cash flows touted as explainers by some sell-side deals, while the DMO’s reduction in issuance WAM continues to support long end spreads.
- 42bp of BoE easing priced through year-end, next cut fully discounted through June.
- This week’s BoE rhetoric failed to add to the monetary policy debate.
- Markets weren’t quite able to fully discount 50bp of BoE easing through year-end during the latest round of dovish repricing.
- We have argued that the most likely dovish catalyst at this stage is a further easing of the labour market, with the disinflationary process already running at a quicker than previously envisaged pace.
- Labour market and inflation data is due next week, expect greater detail in our usual global week ahead and data coverage publications.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.721 | -0.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.654 | -7.1 |
Apr-26 | 3.531 | -19.3 |
Jun-26 | 3.460 | -26.4 |
Jul-26 | 3.379 | -34.5 |
Sep-26 | 3.346 | -37.9 |
Nov-26 | 3.312 | -41.3 |
Dec-26 | 3.308 | -41.6 |
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US-RUSSIA: RTRS-White House: No Decision From Trump On New Russia Sanctions
Reuters reports comments from a White House official stating that President Donald Trump "has made no new decisions regarding new Russian sanctions at this time". As noted in our US Daily Brief (MNI POLITICAL RISK-Trump To Deliver Primetime Address @ 2100ET), Bloomberg News reported that “The US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase the pressure on Moscow should President Vladimir Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine”.
- The measures would look to target the ‘shadow fleet’ of Russian tankers used to transport sanctioned oil. Traders facilitating these transactions would also be subject to US sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is believed to have discussed the prospect of tighter sanctions when talking to the group of 27 ambassadors from EU nations on 15 December.
- The EU has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, but to little effect with regard to Moscow’s ability to continue waging war on Ukraine. While the US is unlikely to go as far as the EU in some of its sanctions, the fact that it will be viewed as putting pressure on Moscow, rather than Kyiv, to accept (still unagreed) terms of a peace framework is likely to be met with a warm reception in Ukraine and Europe.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Alberta Tribal Group Head On Pipeline Outlook
The head of an Alberta tribal group discusses the outlook for a crude oil pipeline to Canada's west coast -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Pierces Support
- RES 4: 7100.00 Round number support
- RES 3: 7048.21 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 6932.25/6988.00 High Dec 15 / 12
- PRICE: 6857.00 @ 14:36 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 6831.93/6817.50 50-day EMA / Low Dec 16
- SUP 2: 6785.50 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 3: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 4: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6831.93, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key support and reversal trigger lies at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
