USDCAD TECHS: S/T Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4155 @ 20:43 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.4135/4117 20-day EMA / Low Jul 10
• SUP 2: 1.3999 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.3899 Low Jun 10

The USDCAD trend theme remains bullish. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that a recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, 61.8% of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. The trend remains overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support is 1.4131, the 20-day EMA (pierced).

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6979/0.7022 Low Jun 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6951 @ 20:38 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
• SUP 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 2025 

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and - for now - short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6943. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6979, the Jun low.

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.86/186.32 High Jun 30 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 184.59 @ 20:25 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 183.78/183.17 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

EURJPY resistance remains intact for now. Last week’s initial gains cancels a recent bearish threat and attention is on the key short-term resistance at 185.86, the Jun 30 high, and 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high. Clearance of both price points would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. A break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 182.05, the May 6 low.