SONIA: Sonia call fly
SFIQ4 95.05/95.20/95.35c fly, bought for 2.25 in 2k.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Has Traded Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
- RES 2: 5246.18 76.4% retracement of the Apr 1 - 19 bear leg
- RES 1: 5192.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 1 - 19 bear leg
- PRICE: 5177.25 @ 14:34 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 5036.25/4963.50 Low May 2 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
- SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17
The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract has traded through resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 5124.14. A clear breach and a continuation higher would instead signal a possible reversal and expose key resistance at 5333.50, Apr 1 high. Initial resistance is 5192.16, a Fibonacci retracement.
CORN TECHS: (N4) Clears Resistance
- RES 4: $512.50 - High Dec 6
- RES 3: $502.00 - High Dec 26
- RES 2: $471.00 - High Jan 24 / 25
- RES 1: $468.00 - High May 3
- PRICE: $460.75 @ 14:30 BST May 6
- SUP 1: $435.75/422.25 - Low Apr 18 / Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $400.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 3: $391.13 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 21 - Jul 13 - Jul 24 price swing
- SUP 4: $375.69 - 1.618 proj of the Jun 21 - Jul 13 - Jul 24 price swing
Resistance in Corn futures at the 50-day EMA, at $449.88, has been breached. Furthermore, $460.00, the Mar 28 high, has also been cleared and the break highlights a stronger bullish theme that opens $471.00, the Jan 24 / 25 high. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $435.75, the Apr 18 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and open $422.25, the Feb 26 low.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: HSBC on April Jobs: Unlike Policy Makers Will Overreact
- HSBC notes that while Friday's April employment data was "below consensus expectations," jobs were "still within the broad range of monthly increases seen over the past year."
- "Private sector employment rose 167,000 and government employment rose 8,000. The increase in government employment was the smallest since December 2022 and could be a sign that hiring in this sector is beginning to slow from the robust pace seen in recent years."
- "After mostly upside surprises to employment growth over the past two years, we don't expect FOMC policymakers overreact to the lower-than-expected result in April, unless subsequent data also point to the possibility that economic momentum is softening. The private sector payroll diffusion index - a measure of the share of industries that are adding jobs - rose to 60.4 in April, a healthy reading that is consistent with broad-based job creation."
