NORWAY: Small Increase In Spending In 2025 Revised National Budget
May-15 06:05
Norway revised national budget here:
- "Along with high wage growth this will improve households’ purchasing power. It is too soon to determine how inflation will be affected by trade tensions, but it may take some time for inflation to return to the inflation target. GDP for mainland Norway (non-oil GDP) is projected to grow by 1.8 per cent this year while inflation is projected to be 2.8 per cent".
- "Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global is projected at NOK 542 billion. This corresponds to 2.7 per cent of the value of the fund at the start of the year, well below the long-term 3 percent guideline stipulated by the fiscal rule".
- "In April the Norwegian Parliament unanimously decided to increase military support to Ukraine by NOK 50 billion, which will be used in its entirety to provide military support through international initiatives and procurements from the Ukrainian defence industry. This is not expected to affect the activity level in the Norwegian Economy".
- "Excluding the increased support for Ukraine, fund spending is estimated at NOK 492 billion, which is at the same level as in the 2025 budget passed before Christmas. This results in a fiscal impulse of 1.3 per cent and a structural non-oil fiscal deficit of 11.7 per cent of GDP for mainland Norway, which is also unchanged from the budget passed before Christmas".
- Forecast changes vs March:
- 2025 mainland GDP 1.8% vs 2.0% prior
- Government spending as % of GPFG: 2.7% vs 2,5% prior
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MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
Apr-15 06:00
- MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
- UK MAR CLAIMANT RATE +4.7%
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS +5.6% YY
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS EX-BONUS +5.9% YY
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Apr-15 06:00
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.39 @ 06:59 GMT Apr 15
- SUP 1: 161.03/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28
Recent weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the strong rally from the Apr 7 low reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
JGBS: Cheaper Out To 10Y, Mixed Beyond Following 20Y Supply
Apr-15 05:53
JGB futures are weaker and hovering near session lows, -56 compared to settlement levels.
- With the local calendar light today, the key domestic driver was the poor 20-year auction. The 20-year JGB auction delivered poor results across key metrics. The low price underperformed dealer forecasts, which were set at 100.40 according to a Bloomberg poll. Moreover, the cover ratio decreased to 2.9639x from 3.4594x in the previous auction and the auction tail lengthened dramatically to 0.34 from 0.20.
- This result came despite the 20-year auction offering a cycle-high outright yield and a 10/20 curve at its steepest since 1999.
- Cash JGBs are weaker across the curve out to the 7-year tenor, with yields rising 4–6bps. The benchmark 10-year yield is up 2bps at 1.362%, well below the cycle high of 1.596%.
- Further out the curve, performance is mixed: the 20-year and 30-year bonds are 6bps and 3.5bps richer, respectively, while the 40-year underperformed, with yields 10bps higher.
- The swaps curve has twist-flattened, with rates 4bps higher to 9bps lower.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Core Machine Orders data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs.
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