CANADA DATA: Small Business Confidence Pickup Suggests Q2 Econ Activity Trough

Reuters reports from a new Ipsos survey that Americans are becoming “less supportive of [Trump’s] approach to immigration as his administration cracks down.” 

• Reuters notes: “The six-day poll showed 42% of U.S. adults approved of the job the Republican is doing as president, unchanged from a prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted May 16-18. His support on immigration, however, softened to 44% from 47% in mid-May.”

Silver Bulletin noted yesterday: “The polls are coming hard and fast so far this week. It’s only Monday, and we’ve already seen four new releases (if you count one from over the weekend). On balance, they aren’t great for Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have been on the decline since Tuesday.”

• Silver Bulletin adds: “But context is important here. Although we’re seeing multiple large-scale protests of the Trump administration, Donald Trump is still more popular than he was at this point during his first term.”

Figure 1: Support for Trump’s Immigration Policy

Source: Silver Bulletin

Media reports in the past minutes point to an intensification of hostilities between Iran and Israel, as US President Donald Trump meets his national security team at the White House to consider joining Israeli strikes on Iran. 

• Iran will soon launch a 'punitive' operation against Israel, per Iran’s Chief of Staff of Armed Forces on Operations. Video statement here, per Iran Nuances on X.  
• Iran’s semi-official Mehr agency reports: “Iran’s senior army commander calls on Israelis to evacuate Haifa and Tel Aviv immediately,”
• Fox News reports that US President Donald Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was left out of the meeting to discuss the conflict on June 8. Gabbard’s marginalisation indicates that the Iran hawks have more influence over Trump’s foreign policy decisions that the MAGA isolationists.
• Gabbard notably said in Congressional testimony in March that US intelligence “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon…” Trump dismissed those comments aboard Air Force 1 yesterday: "I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having [a nuclear weapon].”
• Israeli reporter Yossi Meman notes on X: “The signs are multiplying—actions on the ground and statements—that the U.S. is considering joining the war… And yet, it may still be about pressure, and he prefers a deal over war.”
• The NYT reports that Trump initially chose a 'middle road' with Israel but is now "seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo..."

• Headlines surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict, paired with President’s Trump escalatory rhetoric, have dented risk sentiment in currency markets, which has filtered through into a steady move higher for the US dollar across the US session.
• GBPUSD is notably underperforming in G10 as the pair currently tracks 0.87% lower on the session as we approach the APAC crossover, comfortably back below the 1.35 mark.
• This has coincided with a breach of the 20-day exponential moving average, of which spot has not closed below since May 12. A sustained break would be a bearish development, signalling scope for a deeper retracement below 1.3456 (Jun 10 low) and targeting the 50-day EMA at 1.3346.
• The likes of EUR, AUD and NZD have fallen over half a percent against the greenback. Price action has seen EURUSD slip back below 1.15, in what is deemed as a corrective selloff for now.
• USDJPY has risen 0.3%, evidence of the broad dollar strength on display. The pair is narrowing the gap to last week’s highs at 145.46. Key short-term resistance remains further out at 146.28, the May 29 high.
• Wednesday’s data calendar kicks off with UK CPI. US jobless claims & housing starts will precede the June FOMC decision later in the session.