EU CAPITAL GOODS: CAPITAL GOODS: Sika Meets FY Targets Though Guides For Slower FY24
Feb-16 07:47
- Q4 Rev broadly in line with slight misses on Op Inc and EBITDA of ~4% not feeding through to Net Income which was a ~5% beat.
- FY targets met: +14.9% Local FX Sales vs. +15% target, FOCF/Sales of 12.2% vs. >10% target, +13% adj-EBIT vs. “over-proportional rise in EBIT” target.
- EBITDA leverage of 2.6x from 1x at FY22 while FY OFCF beat consensus by 6.4%
- FY24 guidance of +6%-9% Local FX Sales and “an over-proportional increase in EBITDA”
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STIR: CPI Has Hawkish Feedthrough Into SONIA
Jan-17 07:45
The firmer-than-expected domestic CPI data (detailed elsewhere) makes its presence felt, with the SONIA futures strip showing 0.5-15.0bp lower early today.
- Some feedthrough from the latest round of hawkish ECB-speak will also be feeding in (comments from ECB President Lagarde re: a likely rate cut by the summer limit early hawkish flow), although the domestic data is the major driver.
- BoE-dated OIS moves in sync, with ’24 MPC meeting contracts 0.5-13.5bp firmer on the day.
- That leaves the strip pricing ~116.5bp of cuts through ’24 vs. ~130bp at yesterday’s close. Further forward, May MPC pricing sees ~3bp of easing come out of pricing, leaving ~14bp of cuts priced over that horizon.
- Outside of the data, local headline flow has focused on the latest round of headwinds for PM Sunak, with resignations and rebellion seen within the Conservative Party re: the controversial Rwanda bill. This isn’t a meaningful input for markets, but further punctuates the PM’s struggles.
- House price index data rounds off the local data docket today.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Feb-24 | 5.208 | +2.1 |
| Mar-24 | 5.179 | -0.8 |
| May-24 | 5.044 | -14.3 |
| Jun-24 | 4.846 | -34.1 |
| Aug-24 | 4.606 | -58.1 |
| Sep-24 | 4.400 | -78.7 |
| Nov-24 | 4.185 | -100.2 |
| Dec-24 | 4.023 | -116.4 |
CROSS ASSET: Another Positive session for the Dollar
Jan-17 07:44
- It's another positive start for the Dollar, in the green and once again on the front foot across the major, beside the Pound, which has managed to pare losses back to flat against the Greenback, following the UK inflation data coming above consensus.
- Risk Off and Higher Yield have been supporting of the Currency, with downside stops triggered Yesterday on Technical breakouts, as Estoxx (VGH4) broke below the 2024 low and lowest print since the 1st December Yesterday.
- Looking at the early price action pre European Govies open, some suggestion that more long bailed out in Emini and Estoxx just before 06.00GMT today.
- Yen is again the worst performer, down 0.49% today, and a whopping 4.64% this Year.
- Next resistance in USDJPY is above the figure at 148.51 High Nov 30.
BUNDS: Sees further push lower post open
Jan-17 07:28
- Bund has tested through the next support noted at 134.87, following Fed Waller Yesterday afternoon, and the latest round of Hawk ECB speakers pushing back on early ECB rate cuts.
- The contract remains under pressure post cash open, and drops some 22 ticks following the UK Inflation data beat, and remains heavy, since the UK release.
- Next support is at 134.37, followed 134.05, while resistance moves down to 135.23.
- This morning sees EU final CPI, and out of the US Retail Sales and IP.
- SUPPLY: Italy to hold an exchange via the electronic trading system. Greek 5yr (too small won't impact German Govies). Germany 2052, 2053 (equates combined 12k Buxl), could weigh. UK £3.75bn 10yr (equates to 34k Gilt) will weigh.
- SYNDICATION: Finland WNG 30yr.
- SPEAKERS: A busy day on the speaker front, ECB Cippolone, Vasle, Simkus, Villeroy, Vujcic, Knot, Lagarde, Nagel, Fed Barr, Bowman, Williams.
