USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bear Trigger

Jan-26 19:30
  • RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
  • RES 3: 133.94 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
  • RES 1: 130.78/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
  • PRICE: 130.46 @ 16:44 GMT Jan 26
  • SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
  • SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY recovered well through the Thursday session, but the bounce fell short of the Wednesday/Tuesday high. The trend outlook remains bearish for now and resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Note too that the pair is also trading below the 20-day EMA, at 130.78. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A break lower would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development.

Historical bullets

US: Tsy Dept: Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax; Stock Buybacks Tax

Dec-27 19:27

The US Tsy Dept just issued initial guidance on two key tax provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax and the excise tax on stock buybacks.

  • The Inflation Reduction Act created a 15% alternative minimum tax on large companies earning an average of more than $1 billion annually beginning in 2023. The initial high-level guidance issued by Treasury today clarifies which companies the tax applies to and how the alternative minimum tax is calculated.
  • The Inflation Reduction Act also created a new annual excise tax that applies to repurchases of a publicly traded corporation’s stock that take place after December 31, 2022. The initial guidance issued by Treasury today addresses the types of transactions subject to the tax, how the tax is calculated, and basic rules to prevent the avoidance of the tax.

US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Dow Industrials Outperform

Dec-27 19:19

Major indexes traded mixed late Tuesday, Dow shares outperformed mildly weaker SPX and Nasdaq shares ahead the FI close. Mining equipment maker Caterpillar and O&G refiner Chevron lead DJIA gains +90.87 points (0.27%) at 33298.98; SPX eminis currently trade -4.75 points (-0.12%) at 3864.75; Nasdaq -90.87 points (0.27%) at 33298.98.

  • Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Caterpillar (CAT) +3.57 at 243.44, Chevron (CVX) +2.41 at 179.81, followed by United Health (UNH) +1.30 at 532.61. Laggers: Goldman Sachs (-3.13) at 342.38, Apple (AAPL) -2.15 at 129.71, Microsoft (MSFT) -2.05 at 236.68.
  • SPX leading/lagging sectors: Energy sector leading (+0.95%) partially tied to firmer crude prices (WTI +0.55 at 80.11) w/ O&G refiners narrowly outpacing equipment and servicer stocks. Consumer Staples (+0.34%) followed by Industrials (+0.27%) lead by capital goods, particularly aerospace and defense (Northrop Grumman, NOC +1.25%).
  • Laggers: Communication Services and and Consumer Discretionary both appr -1.25%, the latter weighed by auto makers in particular Tesla (-8.27%). Information Technology next up (-1.0%) with semiconductor makers underperforming.

US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Dec-27 18:30

NY Fed reverse repo usage climbs to $2,221.259B w/ 100 counterparties vs. $2,216.348B in the prior session. Prior record high stands at $2,425.910B on Friday, September 30.

NY Federal Reserve/MNI