CHILE: Short-Term USDCLP Gains Would Be Corrective, Kast Names Cabinet Next Week
- Despite a pullback in copper yesterday, USDCLP closed little changed near cycle lows at 883. The previous rally in copper to record highs this week has helped to drive the peso to its strongest levels since end-2023, building on earlier positive momentum coming from the recent market-friendly Presidential election result.
- The trend condition in USDCLP remains bearish, with sights on 878.22 and 865.80, the 1.236 and 1.382 projections of the Apr 9 - Jul 2 - Jul 30 2025 price swing. Initial resistance is at 898.98, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
- Today, no macro date are due, with the calendar clear until the next BCCh traders survey on Jan 22, followed by December PPI stats Jan 23. These come just ahead of the Jan 27 BCCh MPC meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 4.50%, before delivering a final cut to neutral later this quarter.
- Meanwhile, President Boric will attend a ceremony to mark the start of social security payments this year. Next week, President-elect Jose Antonio Kast is due to announce his Cabinet members on Jan 20.
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SOFR: Mix of Net Long Setting & Short Cover in Futures on Tuesday
OI data points to net long setting dominating in SOFR futures as most contracts settled higher on Tuesday. Instances of net short cover were limited in scale.
| 16-Dec-25 | 15-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,307,651 | 1,299,410 | +8,241 | Whites | +59,981 |
SFRZ5 | 1,572,341 | 1,568,810 | +3,531 | Reds | +20,336 |
SFRH6 | 1,385,349 | 1,376,296 | +9,053 | Greens | +4,734 |
SFRM6 | 1,154,210 | 1,115,054 | +39,156 | Blues | +28,980 |
SFRU6 | 1,201,807 | 1,177,910 | +23,897 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,135,640 | 1,140,470 | -4,830 |
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SFRH7 | 872,290 | 869,580 | +2,710 |
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SFRM7 | 765,102 | 766,543 | -1,441 |
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SFRU7 | 829,714 | 822,139 | +7,575 |
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SFRZ7 | 842,026 | 841,487 | +539 |
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SFRH8 | 475,302 | 478,724 | -3,422 |
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SFRM8 | 416,723 | 416,681 | +42 |
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SFRU8 | 383,848 | 384,551 | -703 |
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SFRZ8 | 336,817 | 321,077 | +15,740 |
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SFRH9 | 207,348 | 196,101 | +11,247 |
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SFRM9 | 210,336 | 207,640 | +2,696 |
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US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Setting In UXY & US Dominated On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, FV, UXY & US) and short cover (TY & WN) as Tsy futures ticked higher on Tuesday. Net long setting across UXY & US futures provided the only real net positioning swings of note and accounted for almost all of the net DV01 swing on the day.
| 16-Dec-25 | 15-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,502,427 | 4,502,056 | +371 | +14,726 |
FV | 6,666,243 | 6,645,718 | +20,525 | +908,200 |
TY | 5,419,053 | 5,425,920 | -6,867 | -461,191 |
UXY | 2,516,405 | 2,504,545 | +11,860 | +1,072,478 |
US | 1,858,809 | 1,834,961 | +23,848 | +3,300,708 |
WN | 2,080,065 | 2,081,956 | -1,891 | -341,451 |
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| Total | +47,846 | +4,493,469 |
OPTIONS: Expiries for Dec17 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1700(E1.3bln), $1.1750(E1.5bln), $1.1800(E1.6bln), $1.1850(E624mln)
- USD/JPY: Y154.75($594mln)
AUD/USD: $0.6590(A$680mln), $0.6650-60(A$875mln)
