SOFR OPTIONS: SFRM7 98.750 Calls Lifted

Energy prices remain the key intraday driver with a move back from session highs there providing background support for core global FI markets in recent trade. 

• Swedish June CPIF ex-energy inflation was a little above the Riksbank’s June MPR projection at 0.37% Y/Y (vs 0.52% prior; 0.20 Riksbank), but underlying inflation pressures remain very low. CPIF excluding energy and with constant taxes (a greater focus due to the various temporary tax policues currently impacting inflation) pulled back to 1.17% Y/Y (vs 1.33% prior). There will be another inflation report before the Riksbank’s August 20 decision.
• Major analysis groups were unchanged from the flash. Services rose to 2.92% Y/Y (vs 2.63% prior), while goods (-1.55% Y/Y vs -0.73% prior) and food (-5.16% Y/Y vs -4.69% prior) remain firmly negative.
• Within core goods, clothing and footwear (-2.34% Y/Y vs 0.73% prior) and  furniture and household equipment (-3.01% Y/Y vs 1.41% prior) both decelerated.
• Services accelerations came from restaurants and accommodation (2.8% Y/Y vs 1.96% prior) and insurance and financial services (2.80% Y/Y vs 1.96% prior). Package holidays ticked up a little, but will have been offset by a larger decline in airfares.
• We estimate seasonally adjusted CPIF ex-energy inflation at 0.17% M/M, a pullback from 0.64% in May. It keeps 3m/3m momentum comfortably negative at -1.54% (vs -1.66% prior), though there will likely be some base effect next month when April’s -0.81% M/M reading falls into the denominator. Seasonally adjusted services is estimated at 0.67% M/M, with goods (ex-food) estimated at 0.37% M/M.
• Inflation breadth metrics were broadly steady. The proportion of CPIF subcomponents with annual inflation rates between 1-3% Y/Y ticked up to 16% (vs 14% prior). The proportion with sub-1% rates was 62% (vs 63% prior), and the proportion with greater-than 3% rates was unchanged at 23%.

The BoC has cancelled the media lockup, citing a potential disruption by striking security guards. Therefore there will be no Instant Answers on either the Bullets / HSC services at 09:45ET/14:45BST today.