JGBS: Sep Futures Off Thursday Highs, Mixed Data Outcomes, IP Weaker

TYU5 is trading 111-12, up 0-00+ from its close. 

• The US 2-year yield opens around 3.865%.
• The US 10-year yield opens around 4.325%.
• MNI US DATA: Consumer Confidence Off Lows, But Remains Weak Overall. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey showed a notable improvement in sentiment in July, with the headline reading rising to 97.2 (96.0) from 95.2 prior (rev up from 93.0). The report notes "all three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income."
• (Bloomberg) - Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcements are taking on pivotal importance. We got the first part of the announcement Monday detailing how much the Treasury intends to borrow in the coming quarter. The estimate at over $1 trillion was as expected. What will be key, both in the second part of the announcement due Wednesday, and in refunding's going forward, is at what maturity the Treasury wants to borrow at. The US debt profile has become increasingly short term. That has important implications for rollover risk, inflation, the yield curve and rate volatility.

• The 10-year yield has moved back towards its pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%, decent supply was seen around 4.30/35% first up. A decent bounce was seen off this support but the move has failed to follow through above 4.40% for now. The Data this week should hopefully provide more clarity going forward. A Clear break of the support opens a move to the bottom end of the range.

   

South Korea saw continued positive inflow momentum yesterday. This brings inflows for the last 5 days up close to $1.9bn. July to date inflows now stand at +$3.8bn. The Kopsi is attempting to maintain its breach above the 3200 level as we approach month end. Samsung Electronics also closed at a fresh high yesterday, back to September last year. 

• Taiwan inflow momentum abruptly stalled yesterday, with nearly $600mn in offshore selling. This was the largest daily outflow since June 19. Month to date inflows for Taiwan still stand at +$7.24bn, so we may be seeing some paring of risk ahead of key event risks and month end. Yesterday the Taiex fell by 0.9%.
• Elsewhere, India outflow momentum continued, bringing July outflows to date of just over $1.7bn.
• Thailand inflows were the main standout in South East Asia (SEA). A modest outflow on Monday proved to be short lived, with sentiment likely aided by the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire. The SET finished yesterday's session +1.3% higher, putting the index above 1233, which is fresh highs since Feb of this year.
• Modest outflow trends continued elsewhere in SEA. 

Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

European natural gas rose 4% to EUR 34.20 on Tuesday to be up 5.2% this week and 4% this month. It has risen sharply this week following US President Trump’s announcement that Russia now has 10 days to stop hostilities in Ukraine. A failure to do so, which is clearly possible, would result in high tariffs including against those who buy its fossil fuels, which would have significant implications for global supplies. 

• Polymarket reported an increase in the odds of increased US sanctions on Russia by September 15 to 70%. The market reaction to the shift in the deadline for a truce is in line with this data.
• Former Russian President Medvedev said that Trump’s “ultimatums” were a “step towards war”, per Russian state media. The Kremlin was clear that it is going to ignore the deadline.
• Europe has imported more than average LNG recently to refill storage ahead of winter. This has been helped by a mild Asian summer but it is about to turn hotter, which could increase LNG demand for cooling. Parts of Europe are also forecast to see warmer weather in August.
• Inspired Plc observes that the US-EU trade deal is unlikely to drive significantly higher EU LNG imports from the US, as already around 80% of US LNG exports go to the EU (Bloomberg).
• US gas rose 3.2% to $3.165 to be up 0.2% this week but still down 9.3% in July. Buyers took advantage of the recent drop in prices driven by forecasts for a mild start to August and ample supply. It is down 13.5% from the 18 July high of $3.657.