US: Senate Expected To Vote Today On Symbolic Resolution To Block Trump Tariffs
The Senate is expected to vote today on a resolution to block President Donald Trump’s 'reciprocal' tariffs. The resolution, if it makes it to the floor, is largely symbolic as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has taken steps to block the mechanism by which lawmakers can force a House vote.
- Earlier this month, four Republican Senators joined Democrats to vote in favour of a comparable messaging resolution to block Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. A similar level of dissent can be expected today, despite efforts from the administration to whip Republicans against the resolution.
- The vote comes after a two-week recess during which many Republican Senators returned to home states that are likely to be on the frontline of tariff fallout, potentially increasing a political imperative to stand more firmly against Trump’s trade measures.
- Dissent could also be pushed higher if Republican senators see today's GDP and inflation prints as signals that Trump’s trade agenda is contributing to a weaker economic outlook.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), a Republican from an agricultural state who has previously expressed scepticism towards tariffs, said: “I think [Trump’s negative polling] numbers on the economy… may be related in some respects to the policy discussions being held about tariffs... [but] you’ve got to take the long view. And I think his policy decisions are the right ones.”
- USTR Jamieson Greer assured Senate Republicans yesterday that multiple market-soothing trade deals are in the works, although the administration is yet to make any formal announcements.
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EQUITIES: Tariff Risks Set To Drive Negative Cash Open In NY
E-minis also off lows ahead of the cash equity open, with the break below the Mar 13 low and bear trigger (5,559.75) proving limited and short-lived.
- Still, the bearish risks to the contract are gathering more momentum.
- Tech names proving most sensitive to tariff-related risks in pre-cash open trade, while some questions surrounding the sustainability of AI earnings growth also weigh on the sector.
- Negative starts seen for cash trade across the major indices:
- S&P 500 e-minis: -1.03%
- NASDAQ 100 e-minis: -1.46%
- DJIA e-minis: -0.72%
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 5896.39 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5778.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21
- PRICE: 5573.25 @ 14:13 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5559.75/52.00 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
EQUITIES: Stoxx 50 Futures Base Around Technical Support Level
Euro Stoxx 50 futures only managed a limited break of next support at 5,160.00, basing at 5,157.00 before recovering to ~5,190.00.
- News flow remains relatively limited, with tariff worry and cross-market cues dominating for much of the day.
