SCHATZ TECHS: (U6) Corrective Cycle
* RES 4: 106.040 High Jul 2 and a bull trigger * RES 3: 105.945 High Jul 7 * RES 2: 105.785 High Jul...
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BOBL TECHS: (U6) Bullish Theme Intact
- RES 4: 116.000 Roun number resistance
- RES 3: 115.947 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
- RES 2: 115.610 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
- RES 1: 115.530 High Jun 26
- PRICE: 115.420 @ 06:12 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 114.941/700 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22
- SUP 2: 114.180 Low Jun 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 114.080 76.4% retracement of the May 19 - 29 bull leg
- SUP 4: 113.840 Low May 20
Bobl futures maintains a firmer tone and the contract is trading at last week’s highs as a short-term bull cycle remains intact. Key resistance at 115.180, the May 29 and Jun 16 high, has been cleared. The clear breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19, and opens 115.610 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 114.180, the May 10 and 11 low. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 114.941.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 29-Jun | 0930 | May | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 30-Jun | 0001 | Jun | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jun | 0700 | Q1 | GDP 2nd Estimate / Quarterly Current Account Balance |
| 30-Jun | 1140 | --- | BOE Breeden Panel on AI/FinStab at ECB Forum, Sintra |
| 01-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01-Jul | 1400 | --- | BOE Bailey Policy Panel at ECB Forum, Sintra |
| 02-Jul | 0930 | Q2 | BOE Credit Conditions / Bank Liabilities Surveys |
| 02-Jul | 1645 | --- | BOE Mann Fireside Chat at Conference on Private Debt |
| 03-Jul | 0930 | Jun | BOE DMP Data / S&P Composite/Services PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 1600 | --- | BOE Bailey Panel on Fiscal and Monpol |
| 06-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06-Jul | 1745 | --- | BOE Mann Panel at Royal Economic Society |
| 07-Jul | 1030 | H1 | BOE Financial Stability Report |
| 07-Jul | 1715 | --- | BOE Mann Panel at Royal Economic Society |
| 08-Jul | 0001 | --- | KPMG-REC Report on Jobs |
| 09-Jul | 2030 | --- | BOE Breeden Panel on Monpol Implementation/Markets |
| 14-Jul | 0001 | Jun | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 16-Jul | 0700 | May | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
EURUSD TECHS: S/T Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.1645 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
- RES 3: 1.1576 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.1496 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.1439 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 1.1386 @ 06:20 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 1.1325 Low Jun 24
- SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
- SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg
Short-term gains in EURUSD are considered corrective. A bear cycle remains in play highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. A key support at 1.1411, the Mar 13 / 16 low, has been breached. The break strengthens the bear theme and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Sights are on 1.1299, the 2.00 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing. Firm resistance is 1.1496, the 20-day EMA.
