US STOCKS: S&P Has All-Time Highs Within Reach

Relative to recent weeks, last week saw a very modest inflow overall into Asia with India experiencing a large outflow Thursday. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$64m as of 23rd, bringing the 5-day total to -$245m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,605. The 5-day average is -$49m, the 20-day average is +$67m and the 100-day average of -$114m.
• Taiwan: Had outflows of -$103m as of 23rd, with total inflows of +$645m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10,445. The 5-day average is +$129m, the 20-day average of +$446m and the 100-day average of -$120m.
• India: Had outflows of -$635m as of the 22nd, with total outflows of -$560m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$10,647m.  The 5-day average is -$112m, the 20-day average of +$195m and the 100-day average of -$121m.
• Indonesia: Had inflows of +$36m as of the 23rd, with total inflows of +$131m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,816m.  The 5-day average is +$26m, the 20-day average +$11m and the 100-day average -$32m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$54m as of the 23rd, inflows totaling +$130m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,618m. The 5-day average is +$26m, the 20-day average of -$7m and the 100-day average of -$17m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$9m as of the 23rd, totaling -$92m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,183m. The 5-day average is -$23m, the 20-day average of +$33m and the 100-day average of -$22m.
• Philippines: Saw inflows of +$2m as of the 23rd, with net outflows of -$32m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$256m. The 5-day average is -$6m, the 20-day average of +$2m the 100-day average of -$3m.

TYM5 is trading 109-25+, down 0-09 from its close.

• No Cash today
• Bloomberg - “Speaking to Fox News, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that President Donald Trump "believes EU proposals [on trade and tariffs] have not been of good quality". Says the Trump move to impose 50% tariffs on the EU is in response to the Union's slow pace in talks. Bessent: "We hope this lights a fire under the EU....the EU has a collective action problem.”
• (Bloomberg) -- “Asset managers aggressively de-leveraged in the week ending May 20, CFTC data show, cutting net long positioning across most Treasury futures. In the long-end of the curve, hedge funds added a large amount to net short in ultra-long bond futures over the week.”
• The 10-year found sellers back towards 4.45% on Friday night and then moved higher to close back above 4.50%. Dips look likely to see supply in the short-term, should yields hold above 4.40% the target looks to be the 4.75% area. Watch for any announcements relating to the SLR, this could cause a knee jerk to a market that is already quite short.

Gold prices trended higher over Friday to finish up 1.9% to $3357.51/oz off the intraday high of $3365.94. They were supported by safe-haven flows following US President Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU. Bullion has started today’s trading 0.4% lower at $3344.40 after EC President von der Leyen and Trump spoke and agreed to stick with the July 9 deadline before imposing duties to have time to negotiate a trade agreement.

• Gold was up almost 5% last week with the peak reached on Friday. It is now 1.7% higher in May. Medium-term signals remain bullish with moving average studies in a bull-mode position.
• Prices broke above initial resistance at $3347.50, 9 May high, on Friday but are currently slightly below this level. A clear break would open $3465.6, 7 May high. The bull trigger is at $3500.1. Initial support is at $3267.9, 20-day EMA.
• Bullion is likely to continue to find support from the US given ongoing trade negotiations and concerns over the fiscal position after the House passed the tax bill which now faces the Senate. Global relations also remain fraught especially in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine.
• The US and UK are closed today for holidays.