EU COMMUNICATIONS: S&P Comment On Recent NTT Deals
NTT NTT; A2/A (Negative Watches)
- Deals for for NTT Data and for SBI Sumishin signal aggressive growth pivot
- ¥420bn is the total transaction for SBI including the ¥233bntender ; we still see a ~0.1x hit.
- FY25 EBITDA forecast at ¥3.5tn; sizes manageable but trend weakens conservatism.
- Ongoing growth investments risk keeping cash flow ratios below recovery thresholds.
- 1–2 notch downgrade likely if CF metrics align with weak projections.
- Consolidated financials exclude SBI Sumishin Bank data, limited impact on reported leverage.
- Financial unit to remain marginal to group profits; synergies and value-add uncertain
- Liquidity position not materially weakened, but leverage trajectory trending unfavourably.
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GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $3308.0 @ 07:20 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: $3260.4 - Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: $3239.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 4: $3088.2 - 50-day EMA
Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3239.5, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: A very busy Day on the Data front
- A 15 ticks range for Bund Overnight (17 ticks post Cash Open) as the Street look forward to a busy day on the Data front, the French GDP already came out inline with consensus, just a 1 tenth beat on the YoY reading as well as a higher revision, but had no impact on the Contract, with more set of Data scheduled.
- A small initial resistance in Bund was seen Yesterday at 131.63, this remains, while the more Important level is still eyed at 132.03.
- Small support moves back up to 131.11, despites the low print of 131.02 on Monday, this is followed by 130.75.
- It is a busy day on the Data front, France, Italy, Portugal prelim CPIs, German Regional/National CPIs, German, EU, Italy prelim GDPs, and plenty out of the US, with ADP, GDP, PCE and MNI Chicago PMI.
- US Treasury Quarterly refunding is also due.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2028 (equates to 13.2k) should have limited impact, {ge} Germany 15s, 20s (equates combined 24.9k Bund) should have limited impact.
- SYNDICATION: Portugal 15yr WNG.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Muller, Villeroy, Makhlouf, BoE Lombardelli.
BRENT TECHS: (N5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15
- RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $68.46 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $62.65 @ 07:06 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: $61.51/58.00 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs and the contract is again trading lower, today. Recent gains are considered corrective and have allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $61.51, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $68.46.
