IDR: Rupiah Takes Surprise Rate Cut In Stride

• The ONS has confirmed that the first TLFS survey took place earlier this month with a wave 1 sample size of 90,000 (note that there are 5 waves that make up the labour market data with households in each wave surveyed quarterly 5 times - once in each wave).
• Amongst the changes to the survey are the ability to complete it online and links via a QR code - which have pilots have shown "increased completion on mobile devices, particularly among younger respondents."
• The timings for the transition to TLFS haven't been updated since the last update in April (which is a positive after many times being pushed back):
  • "The timing of transition to the TLFS remains an evidence-led decision, with a readiness assessment conducted in collaboration with our main users scheduled for July 2026."
  • "We aim to transition to our published headline labour market statistics in November 2026, although this may extend into 2027 if our (or users’) assessment of quality requires more data to be collected and assessed."
• The full ONS release is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/labourmarkettransformationupdateonprogressandplansjuly2025

RXQ5 128.50 puts paper paid 3 on 4.8K.

Late on Friday Goldman Sachs recommended short ERZ6 vs. long SFIZ6.

• They continue to expect one more ECB cut, in September, and think “think the prospect of German fiscal expansion will keep 2026-2027 pricing at current levels or higher in yield”.
• Meanwhile they note that the quantity side the UK labour market data is “increasingly softening, which has been acknowledged by multiple MPC speakers, and weaker global growth remains a headwind to UK activity”. While they do not expect “any notable updates to the borrowing figures, the potential for higher taxes at the autumn budget may also weigh on demand. Combined with a decline in inflation from elevated levels, this should still see the BoE cut well below market pricing through 2026”.