INR: Rupee Records Strongest Session Since 2022
- The rupee ended the session 0.91% in the green against the dollar, recording its biggest intraday gain since 2022. The rally comes ahead of the RBI’s announcement of its dividend transfer to the government (expected to be as high as INR 2.5-3.5trln) which could provide a potential fiscal boost.
- Broader greenback weakness and more signs of progress in India-US trade talks will also be providing additional rupee tailwinds. Usually, any notable flow or demand to sell USD from particular cohorts are reported shortly after currency markets close.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Positioning Swings Seen On Tuesday, Little DV01 Change
OI data points to a mix of net short setting (TU & FV), long cover (TY), long setting (UXY) and short cover (US & WN) as the curve twist flattened on Tuesday. The curve-wide net DV01 equivalent change on the day was very limited.
| 22-Apr-25 | 21-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,089,333 | 4,082,707 | +6,626 | +247,855 |
FV | 6,666,775 | 6,610,989 | +55,786 | +2,402,962 |
TY | 4,723,656 | 4,750,113 | -26,457 | -1,708,211 |
UXY | 2,247,491 | 2,243,868 | +3,623 | +318,991 |
US | 1,804,213 | 1,817,369 | -13,156 | -1,671,466 |
WN | 1,880,800 | 1,883,017 | -2,217 | -409,330 |
|
| Total | +24,205 | -819,198 |
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-12 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-25 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 111-00+/17+ 20-day EMA / High Apr 16
- PRICE: 110-30 @ 10:53 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 110-15/109-08 Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
Treasury futures continue to trade below last week’s highs. For now, recent gains are considered corrective and the bear cycle that started Apr 7, remains in play. The next resistance to watch is 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg sell-off. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
GERMANY: Policy Transmission Not Strengthened By Higher Debt Expenses - BUBA
The Bundesbank's April monthly report concludes that higher private sector debt expenses following interest hikes in the post-Covid inflation cycle have not strengthened ECB monetary policy transmission. Key excerpts below:
- "Significant interest rate hikes led to increases in interest-dependent variables such as interest expenses and debt servicing in particular. Nevertheless, the debt situation of the non-financial private sector did not deteriorate fundamentally overall. Increased nominal income in particular had a relieving effect."
- "The current and expected development of the debt situation of the non-financial private sector does not indicate any comprehensive balance sheet restrictions. The results therefore suggest that the transmission of monetary policy has not been strengthened by debt and is unlikely to be strengthened in the near future."
