CROSS ASSET: Risk-Positive Flows Stemming From Trump's Comments On Iran Fade

Jun-03 10:14

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Light risk-positive moves stemming from President Trump's positive take on the situation with Iran, ...

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May-04 10:12

“IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY SAYS TWO MISSILES HIT U.S. WARSHIP NEAR JASK ISLAND AFTER IT IGNORED IRAN WARNINGS
IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY, CITING LOCAL SOURCES, SAYS U.S. WARSHIP TURNED BACK FROM AREA”- RTRS
"*IRAN ANNOUNCES NEW 'CONTROL ZONE' IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: TASNIM" BBG
Cash Treasuries opened at 11:00BST / 6:00ET after being closed for the Japanese and UK public holidays.
The headlines above have seen yields move higher while equities also getting hit here - S&P500 emini contract is down from around 7270 to a low of 7215.5 on the day while US 10-year yields up around 3.8bp on the day (including the gap on the open). 10-year Bund yields have moved around 2bp higher in response to the headlines.

May-04 09:56

The main highlight of overnight trade has been the drop in USDJPY from 157.25 to 155.72, which our Asia Pac team attributed to low liquidity due to a Japanese holiday.
Recent intervention episodes are of course front of mind, although it bottomed out above Friday’s 155.50 and Thursday’s 155.57 and is back trading around the 157 handle.
From our team: “On the day, the first real support is back toward 152.50-154.50 so it will be interesting to see if the BOJ has another go to test this area. If the BOJ does not come in I suspect we drift back toward 157.75-158.50 where we should then see some sellers come back in. CFTC data does show that speculative positions had indeed begun to build again.”
Elsewhere, EURUSD remains under modest pressure around 1.172 having pared the initial overnight gains following Sunday’s Project Freedom posts.
It eases away from a new resistance level at Friday’s 1.1785, after which lies a bull trigger at 1.1849 (Apr 17 high), whilst support isn’t seen until 1.1655 (Apr 30 low).
More broadly, BBDXY trades at the high end of today’s range of 1190.48 - 1193.88. The USD found some support back toward 1188 on Friday night as the support for the USD holds for now. Those USD bears will be a lot more comfortable to start this week and with Global Central Banks all lining up to potentially to start hiking imminently the pressure is likely to build.

May-04 09:52

In the equity space, the primary long-term uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Sights are on 7309.23, a 1.236 projection of the Apr 123 - 28 - 29 price swing. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, a strong bullish signal that highlights a dominant uptrend. Initial support lies at 7062.44, the 20-day EMA.
The recovery in EUROSTOXX 50 futures from last week’s low is a bullish development and signals the end of a corrective phase between Apr 17 - 30. Key short-term support has been defined at 5692.00, the Apr 30 low. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the bull trigger at 6022.00, the Apr 17 high, ahead of the key medium-term resistance at 6143.00, the Feb 26 high.

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