BOJ: Rinban Purchase Offer

There are a number of key events this week ahead of the 29 September RBA decision, which CBA and ANZ now expect to be a 25bp rate hike. There are three RBA appearances on Tuesday as well as August labour market data on Thursday.

• RBA Governor Bullock appears in a fireside chat with CEDA on Tuesday at 1300 AEST. Her comments will be scrutinized after she told the House of Reps Economic Committee Friday that inflation risks continue to be skewed to the upside and importantly they “appear to be materializing”. She also said “we can’t have faster growth in wages unless productivity picks up”.
• Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter is interviewed at 0500 AEST on Tuesday for the Pay Off 9Now Podcast.
• Monetary Board member Ross speaks on Tuesday at 1730 AEST.
• August jobs print on Thursday and are expected to unwind July’s loss of 15.8k with the unemployment and participation rates holding steady at 4.5% and 66.9% respectively. The data are volatile and so 3-month averages are needed to gauge the trend. The RBA also looks at other indicators such as the underemployment rate, hours worked and youth unemployment rate.
• The Q3 NAB quarterly business survey is released Thursday, according to the Q2 report. Given rising costs, profit margins will be monitored closely. Also, the RBA watches the labour shortages measure too.
• Preliminary September S&P Global PMIs are out Wednesday. The Q3 average to date is consistent with an increase in activity growth this quarter. With the RBA concerned about upside inflation risks, the input cost and selling price components will be important. 

• Bond yield are up 1-2bps across the curve to start the week,  giving back some of Friday's gains.  
• The 2-Yr is up +2bps at 3.847%, having ended the week last week at 3.827%
• The 10-yr is up +2bps at 4.96%, having retreated from the 15 Sept high of 5.046%.  
• Ongoing energy and oil market risks tied to geopolitical tensions continue to stoke global inflation fears, keeping long-term fixed income yields elevated worldwide whilst sluggish domestic economic growth expectations and relatively contained local government issuance have helped limit steeper sell-offs compared to some G10 peers.
• The 2s10s curve is relatively unchanged today, with the front end appearing relatively anchored given growing expecations of a hold from the RBNZ at the next meeting.  The 10-yr has enjoyed a reprieve, along with global trends, as oil prices came off at the back end of last week.  
• For the week ahead the calendar is light.  Tommrrow sees c. $250m of bills issuance head of the 2030 linker, 2031 $250m auction an dhte $200m 2037 later this week