EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
* RES 4: 181.96 High Sep 4 * RES 3: 181.55 High Sep 18 * RES 2: 179.68 50-day EMA * RES 1: 177.80 20...
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US TSYS: SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Oct'26 Tsy Expiration
SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: decent but sporadic option volumes vs. heavy underlying flow (TYZ6 over 2.4M) Curves twisting steeper (2s10s +5.006 at 31.942). Reminder - Oct'26 Tsy options expire. Current rate hike projections consolidating vs. late Thursday levels (*): Oct'26 at +14.6bp (+15.6bp), Dec'26 +34.2bp (+37.7bp), Jan'27 +47bp (+51bp), Mar'27 +64.5bp (+68.1bp).
- SOFR Options
- -5,000 SFRH7 95.25 puts, 19.0 vs. 95.35
- +4,000 OQZ6 94.75/95.00/95.25 put flys, 4.25 ref 95.15
- -3,000 3QH7 94.62/95.62 3x2 put spds, 67.0 ref 95.295
- -8,000 0QZ6 95.50/96.00 call spds, 7.25 vs. 95.13/0.20%
- -8,000 SFRZ6 95.62/95.75/96.06/96.18 put condr w/ 95.31/95.43/95.81/95.93 put condor strip, 14.75 total 95.635
- +8,000 OQH7 96.00/96.37 call spds, 3.75 ref 95.185
- +10,000 SFRV6/SFRX6 95.56 put spds, 3.0 ref 95.64 to -.63
- +2,500 OQH7 95.18 straddles, 65.0 ref 95.185
- +6,000 2QH7 96.25/96.50 call spds, 1.75 ref 95.26
- +4,000 OQX6 95.00/95.25/95.50 call flys, 5.25 ref 95.14
- 10,000 2QU7 96.50/97.50 call spds
- 1,000 SFRZ6 95.43/95.81/95.87 broken put trees
- 1,250 0QZ6 94.75/95.25 put spds vs. 3QZ6 94.87/95.37 put spd spd
- Treasury Options: Reminder, October Tsy options expire today
- 10,000 TYV6 105/106 put spds, 62
- 2,500 TYZ6 101.5/102.5 put spds, 10 ref 104-24
- over 11,000 TYZ6 104 puts, 49 ref 104-27
- 6,500 TYX6 103 puts, 14-17 ref 104-28 (total volume over 21k)
- 5,500 TYZ6 106 calls, 36 ref 104-27.5
- 7,000 TYX6 107 calls, 8 ref 104-22
- Block, 14,500 TYX6 106.5 calls, 11 vs. 104-23/0.41%
- appr +30,000 TYZ6 97 puts, 3 ref 104-23 to -22.5
- 2,500 TYZ6 103/105 put spds, 49 ref 104-24
- 2,000 TYX6 105.5/106 call spds, 10 ref 104-20
- 3,300 USZ6 112/115 call spds, 6 ref 104-07
- Block, 10,000 TYZ6 102/105 put spds vs. 104-16.5/0.35%
- 7,300 Wed wkly TY 105.5 calls - expire 9/30
- 2,250 TYX6 106.5 calls, 13 ref 104-27
- 6,000 TYX6 102 puts, 9-8 ref 104-22.5 to -23
US TSYS: Iran Denies Diplomatic Talks
- "IRAN DENIES REPORTS OF US-IRAN TALKS, CALLS THEM MARKET MANAGEMENT - FARS"
- Crude bouncing a little, Tsys dip but still off lows (TYZ6 104-22.5 (-5) vs. 104-17 low).
- Equities ignoring at the moment - still bid.
USDJPY TECHS: Tests Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 162.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 161.37 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Sep 8 bear leg
- RES 2: 160.39 High Sep 2
- RES 1: 159.04/75 High Sep 24 / 61.8% of Jul 23 - Sep 8 bear leg
- PRICE: 157.35 @ 16:41 BST Sep 25
- SUP 1: 157.02/156.94 20-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 154.86 Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 152.89 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 152.10 Low Jan 27
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play - for now - despite today’s pullback. The first important support to monitor lies at 157.02, the 20-day EMA. It has today been pierced. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bull leg and a close today, closer to the session low would strengthen a possible reversal threat. For bulls, key short-term resistance has been defined at 159.04, Thursday’s high. A break would be bullish.
