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• President Donald Trump’s State Visit to the United Kingdom kicked off today. Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are expected to unveil a raft of tech investment pledges, a nuclear deal, and hammer out details of the May trade framework agreement.
• Trump’s top economic advisor, Stephen Miran, was formally sworn in as a governor on the Federal Reserve board, capping a lightning-fast Senate confirmation process that ensures Miran’s position will be recorded in today's interest rate decision.
• The US and China are reportedly in the final stages of negotiations for Trump to attend a state visit to Beijing.
• Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi touted their personal relationship as Washington and New Delhi look to defuse a trade standoff.
• The House of Representatives approved a measure that cedes more tariff authority to Trump.
• The USTR initiated the public consultation process in advance of a joint review of the USMCA.
• Democratic leaders rejected a Republican CR to avert a government shutdown on October 1.
• Trump told reporters the US military “knocked off” a third Venezuelan boat allegedly involved in narcotics smuggling.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will hold a call with his European counterparts today, in an attempt to head off UN sanctions.
• Poll of the Day: 80% of US adults believe the government should prioritise AI safety over developing capabilities. 

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The Danish Presidency of the Council of the European Union posts on X: "Coreper unanimously agrees on mandate to Commission to open negotiations with the UK and Canada on their participation in the SAFE-instrument." The Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument is an EUR150bln loan instrument indended to boost defence production across the Union. Initially, in order to gain approval for EU funding, at least 65% of the value of the weapon system being acquired has to be made in an EU member state, Ukraine, or in a EEA/EFTA country (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland), leaving a limit of 35% of components from other nations. 

• Following the signing of the EU-UK security and defence partnership in May, the 35% limit for the UK was removed. The Guardian reported earlier that France is pushing for a ceiling to be imposed at 50% British components in any SAFE-financed project.
• The French demands risk intra-EU friction. Paris has long favoured EU 'strategic autonomy' in issues such as defence procuruement, primarily targeted at reducing reliance on US material. Since Brexit, this drive has also been focused at the UK.
• However, most member states are opposed to restrictions on UK involvement, arguing the inclusion of the sizeable and advanced British defence contracting sector is crucial for swift rearmament in the face of an increasingly dangerous geopolitical landscape.
• Guardian: "The UK does not intend to apply for loans, which are earmarked for EU member states, but hopes British defence companies will benefit from the spending bonanza."

Lost somewhat in the fray after Tuesday's stronger than expected Census Bureau retail sales report: the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index release showed a 6.3% Y/Y rise in the week ending September 13. That follows a 6.6% rise the prior week and brought the month-to-date gain to 6.5%, a little above retailers' targeted 6.3%. 

• We note that the Redbook report has shown a clear acceleration in retail sales growth throughout the summer, in spite of weak consumer confidence surveys throughout. To be sure, this (as with the Census Bureau series) is in nominal terms and goods inflation may be overstating the improvement, but the recent pickup in Redbook (which purports to account for 80% of retail
   sales) has been a good guide to solid advance retail sales gains the last couple of months.
• The anecdotes of the Redbook report intriguingly cite a "lack of clear themes in consumer behavior": As the back-to-school season transitions into fall, sales have been inconsistent due to a lack of clear themes in consumer behavior. While back-to-school shopping has remained sporadic, buyers have shown some interest in fall apparel. In contrast, sales of basic commodities and household goods have helped to sustain business, as consumers increasingly cut back on discretionary spending.  The unusually warm weather across much of the country has also impacted demand for fall clothing, which is typically a staple during this time of year. Retailers are hopeful that shoppers will engage with their fall offerings, but this is likely to depend on a shift in weather conditions and a more earnest start to the season.