US TSYS/SUPPLY: Refunding Preview: Pushing Back The Terming Out (1/3)
From our preview of Wednesday's quarterly Refunding announcement, which is at 0830ET (PDF link): Recent market volatility has reduced the possibility that Treasury will adjust its guidance that it will keep nominal coupon auction sizes unchanged for “at least the next several quarters”, as changing this would signal an intention to increase bond supply in the near future.
- A change could be unnecessarily disruptive for the long end of the Treasury curve which has already been under duress amid a tariff-related market selloff, and as we note below there doesn’t appear to be much conviction by the Treasury Secretary that an upsizing is necessary by year-end – such a shift would probably necessitate a change in guidance this month.
- That said, some analysts eye potential for a softening of this language in this round. In the MNI Markets Team’s view, any change would be seen with significant concern by market participants. Recall in February’s round, there had been split opinion over the guidance changing or not – when it wasn’t changed, it spurred a modest relief rally in Treasuries. This time, expectations are low, and a change could trigger an outsized reaction.
- There is no expectation that Treasury will change the composition of coupon auction sizes at this Refunding.
Future Coupon Upsizing: Treasury Secretary Bessent said in February that a terming out of the Treasury’s maturity profile was "a long way off, and we're going to see what the market wants". With the Treasury curve steepening sharply since then with term premia rising amid tariff-related market volatility, it doesn’t seem like an opportune time to test the waters. Additionally, fiscal dynamics don't yet make an upsizing urgent, and indeed some analysts think the next move for coupon sizes could be down, and not up. For now MNI is penciling in nominal coupon issuance rises in February 2026’s refunding – see table below.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
