SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support
* RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing * RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the ...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: OIS Still Price One More 25bp Cut This Cycle, July Pause Likely
ECB-dated OIS continue to price one full 25bp cut this cycle, but show virtually no implied probability of a cut at next Thursday’s decision. Yesterday’s Reuters sources piece was consistent with market pricing. Although President Trump’s latest 30% tariff threat was “complicating” Governing Council decision making, it is unlikely to be enough to derail plans for a July pause. OIS assign a ~40% implied probability of a cut in September, which is the next projection meeting and a more appropriate time to assess the tariff outlook.
- A reminder that the ECB’s “severe” trade scenario in the June macroeconomic projections incorporated a 20% US tariff rate on EU exports (alongside EU retaliation) and a 120% levy on Chinese exports.
- Yesterday, Politico reported that the EU is preparing E72bln worth of retaliatory measures against the US, down from the E95bln package proposed in May. The previously agreed E21bln of retaliation has already been postponed till August 6 to allow negotiations with the US to continue.,
- The MNI Policy Team reported yesterday that the EU is considering turning its attention to securing a series of mini-trade deals with the US, including exemptions for cars, pharma and food, which would bypass the 30% tariff threat while talks for a more comprehensive deal continue past the Aug 1 deadline.
- Today’s regional calendar includes the German July ZEW survey and Eurozone May industrial production. Some commentators have noted that there are upside risks to the 1.0% M/M consensus for IP.
- Main global focus remains on the US CPI report at 1330BST.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.920 | -0.3 |
| Sep-25 | 1.816 | -10.7 |
| Oct-25 | 1.784 | -13.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.693 | -23.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.680 | -24.3 |
| Mar-26 | 1.654 | -27.0 |
| Apr-26 | 1.662 | -26.2 |
| Jun-26 | 1.667 | -25.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Intact
- RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 1: $39.132 - High Jul 14
- PRICE: $38.309 @ 08:11 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: $36.650 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $35.444 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
- SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a strong impulsive bull cycle remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has cleared key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.650, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3750 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3702 @ 08:04 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD is unchanged. Short-term gains appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3750. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
