ITALY DATA: Real Retail Sales Trend Remains Tepid

Italian nominal retail sales were flat M/M in July, but the more informative real retail sales series (not reported by BBG) instead fell 0.2% M/M (vs 0.6% in June, -0.5% in May). Looking through monthly volatility, the trend in real retail sales remains tepid, with little discernible growth seen over the past two years. This has contributed to weak household consumption growth in the national accounts, with consumption flat in Q2 after just 0.2% Q/Q growth in Q1 and Q4. 

• In July, real food retail sales fell 0.9% (vs +1.2% in June) while non-food sales rose 0.3% M/M (after two consecutive months at 0.0%).
• On a 3m/3m basis, overall sales remain just about positive at 0.1% (vs 0.2% prior). Note that this followed a 6-month streak of negative 3m/3m reads.
• On an annual NSA basis, real sales were flat in July (vs -0.6% in June, -0.2% in May).
• ISTAT retail sentiment has not been a great indicator for actual real retail sales momentum over the past few years, with a somewhat better signal coming from consumer confidence (see charts).