EM LATAM CREDIT: Real Estate Development Increasing in El Salvador

• Spot gold has fallen by a further 3.0% today to $3,280/oz, taking the pullback from yesterday's $3,500.1 all-time high to over 6%.
• The WSJ's latest article on possible Chinese tariff rollbacks provided the latest source of pressure, coming after market fears had already been calmed somewhat as President Trump softened his stance on Fed Chair Powell.
• The pullback in gold has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, with gold piercing initial support at the April 17 low of $3,284.0. Firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA of $3,193.5. Shallower selloffs will be considered corrective at this stage.
• A dominant uptrend remains intact, however, with moving average studies firmly in a bull-mode setup. Initial resistance is at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 high.
• Meanwhile, crude has fallen in a volatile trading session, with the main bearish driver a Reuters report that some OPEC+ members are pushing for another accelerated supply return in June.
• Earlier signs that the US may ease its tariffs on China were briefly supportive.
• WTI Jun 25 is down by 2.1% at $62.4/bbl.
• Recent weakness in WTI futures has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. Initial support is seen at $58.29, the Apr 10 low, followed by $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger.
• Resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low.

The April Beige Book summary of Employment conditions: "Employment was little changed to up slightly in most Districts, with one District reporting a modest increase, four reporting a slight increase, four reporting no change, and three reporting a slight decline. This is a slight deterioration from the previous report with a few more Districts reporting declines."

• Prior edition (Feb): "Employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase, seven reporting no change, and one reporting a slight decline."
• Note that wage growth slowed overall for yet another report (February's also noted a slowdown in multiple districts), with some signs of loosening in the labor market - though uncertainty over immigration policy appears to be an increasing issue for labor supply:
• "Hiring was generally slower for consumer-facing firms than for business-to-business firms. The most notable declines in headcount were in government roles or roles at organizations receiving government funding. Several Districts reported that firms were taking a wait-and-see approach to employment, pausing or slowing hiring until there is more clarity on economic conditions. In addition, there were scattered reports of firms preparing for layoffs. Most Districts and markets reported an improvement in overall labor availability, although there were some reports of constraints on labor supply resulting from shifting immigration policies in certain sectors and regions. Wages generally grew at a modest pace, as wage growth slowed from the previous report in multiple Districts."

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3    
• RES 3: 147.77 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 144.90 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 143.22 High Apr 23
• PRICE: 142.65 @ 16:08 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.07  LowJul 28 ‘23
• SUP 4: 137.85 1.618 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and the bounce from Tuesday’s low is considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 144.90.