STIR: RBA Dated OIS Shunt Softer After Lower-Than-Expected Core CPI Data

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12 And the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2658 @ 06:12 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.2613 Low June 27
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Key support at 1.2669, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
• RES 3: 1116.690 High Jun 28
• RES 1: 116.392 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.220 @ 05:51 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 116.080 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 115.862 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 3: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support

Bobl futures have started the week on a bearish note and gapped lower today. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback The move down opens 115.862, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.

Asian markets are mostly higher today, there was been plenty of regional economic data out this morning which has helped support markets, although we have faded in the second half of trading. Japanese stocks are higher as yields rise, yen continues to weaken which continues to support export names, while Japanese department store operators saw significant gains, driven by strong earnings forecasts. South Korean equities are slightly higher today as easing US inflation concerns and rising political uncertainties. Meanwhile, Australian shares declined, led by losses in technology and health-related sectors. Global yields have recovered some of the early morning sell-off, with tsys future volumes well above recent averages.

• Japanese stocks rose for a second day as a jump in US yields and a stronger dollar against the yen lifted banks and exporters. The rise in US rates is expected to positively impact value stocks globally, with Japanese financials and materials stocks showing strength. Exporters, such as automobile makers and machinery producers, firmed as the euro remained stable following the first round of France’s legislative elections. Additionally, shares of department store operators J. Front Retail and Takashimaya surged by at least 11%, driven by raised full-year operating income forecasts and strong quarterly earnings. Earlier, Japan's Tankan data print was mixed. Large manufacturing sentiment was slightly better than forecast For Q2. The headline index rose to +13, versus +11 forecast and +11 prior. The Topix is 0.43% higher, while the Nikkei is 0.10% higher.
• South Korean stocks opened slightly higher amid eased concerns over US inflation and rising political uncertainties. South Korea's exports rose by 5.1% year-on-year to $57 billion in June, leading to a trade surplus of $8 billion as imports fell by 7.5% to $49 billion. This marks the ninth consecutive month of export gains and the 13th consecutive month of a trade surplus. The Kospi is 0.10% higher, while the Kosdaq is up 0.70%.
• Taiwanese equities are higher today with TSMC again contributing the most. AI continued to drive Taiwan's stock market, making it the top-performing market in the Asia-Pacific so far this year, with with TSMC climbing 63% and Hon Hai Precision Industry jumping 105%. Earlier S&P Global PMI Mfg jumped to the highest levels since March 2022 at 53.2 from 50.9, while the Taiex is up 0.20% this morning.
• Australian equities are lower this morning, with Financials and Health care stocks offsetting gains in Materials and Real estate. Earlier this morning, Judo Bank PMI Mfg fell to its lowest levels since 2020m while MI inflation ticks slightly higher to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% and ANZ-Indeed Job Ads fell 2.2% from 1.9% (revised) prior. Eyes will now be on the RBA minutes tomorrow. the ASX200 is down 0.40%
• Elsewhere, New Zealand equities are 0.55% higher, Indonesian equities are 0.70% higher although S&P Global PMI fell to 50.7 from 52.1, the JCI is now up 6.45% from recent lows, Thailand Equities are 0.35% higher, Indian equities are 0.30% higher, Malaysian equities are 0.20% higher, Philippines equities are 0.05% higher while Singapore equities are up 0.15%