EM ASIA CREDIT: Q1 Results: Indika Energy (INDYIJ, Ba3/NR/B+) - Weak
Q1 results weak, key will be gold
• Indika Energy, which is predominantly a single asset thermal coal producer (91% of revenues), reported Q1 results yesterday, in which adjusted EBITDA declined 26% YoY to $46.8m.
• Gross profit margins declined over 300bp YoY to 13%, the main driver being a 13% YoY decline in average selling prices at the main coal producing subsidiary, Kideco (82% of revenues).
• In terms of credit quality, cash and equivalents are lower at $571m versus $638m end '24. Gross debt was $1bn, with the outstanding dollar bond due in 2029 ($455m) being the largest single obligation. Reported leverage was more or less stable at 1.8x versus end FY24 at 1.7x.
• The recent downgrade by Fitch to B+ from BB- indicated adjusted leverage will stay above 3.0x over the next couple of years, with any improvement connected to planned gold operations at the Awak Mas gold mining project in South Sulawesi.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 02-Apr | 1130 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At SciencesPo Conference |
| 02-Apr | 1505 | EU | ECB's Lane At AI Conference |
| 03-Apr | 815 | ES | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Apr | 820 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speaks on financial stability |
| 03-Apr | 845 | IT | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Apr | 850 | FR | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Apr | 855 | DE | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Apr | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Apr | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 03-Apr | 1100 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At OECD Seminar |
| 04-Apr | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04-Apr | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04-Apr | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04-Apr | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Apr | 900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 04-Apr | 900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos Gives Lecture In Barcelona |
ASIA STOCKS: China’s Bourses Hold on to Marginal Gains
Xiaomi’s stock has been under selling pressure today down over 3% as one of its vehicles equipped with smart driving software crashed, with people killed. This followed losses of over 5% yesterday.
Despite the pressure on Xiaomi, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers shares rise as delivery data shows year on year growth.
Malaysia’s Petronas shares slumped 2% as a main pipeline leak caused a fire that damaged multiple homes in a KL suburb.
- China’s main bourses delivered gains today with the Hang Seng up just +0.06, CSI 300 up +0.15%, Shanghai up +0.25% and Shenzhen up +0.38%.
- Taiwan’s TAIEX was weaker today by -0.10%, following yesterday’s huge gains of +2.8%.
- The KOSPI made yesterday’s gains look like an anomaly and fell again by -0.70%.
- With Indonesia still out, after being closed for two days for holidays, Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa KLCI is up +0.57% in trading today, after Friday’s fall of -1.44%
- In Singapore, the Straits Times is down -0.28% whilst the Philippines is up +0.42%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is opening stronger this morning following yesterday’s significant falls of -1.50%, to be stronger by +0.50% in morning trading.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 4
- RES 2: 118.382 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- RES 1: 118.200 High Mar 31
- PRICE: 117.870 @ 05:51 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: 117.519 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 116.470 Low Mar 12
Bobl futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Monday. The contract has breached 117.974, the 61.8% retracement of the bear leg between Feb 28 - Mar 6. The break strengthens the current bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards 118.382, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.519, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 117.080, the Mar 25 low.
