RUSSIA: Putin-'We See Some Progress' With The US
State media reporting comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the prospect of peace talks and US President Donald Trump's earlier post on Truth Social. Asked on relations with the US, Putin says "We see some progress. Let's see what comes of it." Regarding Trump's request to spare the lives of allegedly encircled Ukrainian troops in the Kursk oblast of Russia, Putin says, 'In case they surrender we guarantee we will save their lives', but that 'Ukrainian authorities need to give the order to surrender'. Putin claims that Trump is 'doing everything' to restore ties with Russia'.
- It should be noted that while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the situation in Kursk is 'very difficult' and that the operation 'fulfiled its objectives', the speculation of the 'encirclement' of Ukrainian forces in the region has largely been restricted to pro-Kremlin outlets.
- Zelenskyy also says that as part of any peace deal, Ukraine needs 100% air defence cover as a deterrent. Claims that any ceasefire could be 'controlled with the US' help via satellites and intelligence aid'.
- Zelenskyy also acknowledges that in talks with the US in Jeddah earlier in the week the prospect of territorial concessions were raised, saying it will 'require difficult dialogue'. On 13 March, a Ukrainian official claimed that territorial discussions were not raised.
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SECURITY: Bessent Says US Stands w/Ukraine Ahead Of Key Week For Peace Process
Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a meeting in Kyiv today.
- Amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s long-term commitment to Kyiv, Bessent said he, “would like to send a signal to the world the US stands with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” Adding that his first visit being to Ukraine, “shows the war is a top priority for the Trump administration.”
- Zelenskyy characterised the discussion as “productive and constructive” noting that he will study a natural resources agreement presented by Bessent ahead of Friday’s Munich Security Conference. Zelenskyy confirmed that resources in territories occupied by Russia were not discussed.
- An agreement between the US and Ukraine to provide US firms with rights to Ukrainian resources, including rare earths, is seen as facilitating continued US assistance, with Bessent noting a critical minerals deal is “part of a larger peace deal…”
- Trump wrote in a message on Truth Social ahead of the meeting: “The U.S. has spent BILLIONS of Dollars Globally, with little to show.”
- Trump’s national security advisor Mike Walz told NBC this week: “We need to recoup those costs and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources and their oil and gas, and also buying ours. Those conversations are going to happen this week.”
FOREX: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY North of Key Pivots on Light Volume
USD/JPY has resumed the day's rally, creeping through earlier highs just after the London close in price action still dominated by the dollar and the extended post-CPI reaction. Curiously volumes are light on the latest leg higher in the pair, although remain higher than average across the day as a whole after the CPI-bump in activity.
- A close at current or higher levels would mark the strongest session for the pair this year, and the strongest since December 19th (prices would have to rise to ~Y155.10 today to match). We noted earlier today the corrective nature of the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY rallies, however both prices have now topped key pivor resistance at 154.51 in USD/JPY and 159.93 (and 160.00) in EUR/JPY, the 50-day and 20-day EMAs respectively- a strong bullish technical signal on both charts.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 2.45%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 2.45%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 2.85% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.38
