ENERGY: Putin Not Ruling Out Russian Control of Ukraine’s Sumy

Surging Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from June'25 to September'25 outlined below. The 5Y continues to lead volumes with nearly 1M so far, the roll approximately 20% complete ahead the "First Notice" date on May 30. Current roll details:

• TUM5/TUU5 appr 267,100 from -9.12 to -8.5, -8.62 last, appr 10% complete
• FVM5/FVU5 appr 997,400 from -3.75 to -3.0, -3.25 last, appr 20% complete
• TYM5/TYU5 appr 530,900 from -1.5 to -0.5, -0.75 last, appr 16% complete
• UXYM5/UXYU5 appr 145,300 from 3.75 to 4.0, 3.75 last, appr 7% complete
• USM5/USU5 appr 183,100 from 10.0 to 12.75, 11.5 last, appr 11% complete
• WNM5/WNU5 appr 98,500 from 6.0 to 6.75, 6.25 last, appr 8% complete
• Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, 2s and 5s on June 30. June Tsy options, however, expire May 23.

Tsy futures remain weaker ahead of the $16B 20Y bond auction (912810UL0) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 5.035%, 22.5bp cheap to last month's stop. Today's results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.

• April auction recap: the $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UJ5) traded 0.4bp through, with a high yield of 4.810% vs a 4.814% When-Issued yield at cutoff. This was a smaller trade-through than prior (1.4bp in March), but was the 3rd in the last 4 auctions.
• As with the trade-through, the main peripheral statistics were weaker than March's but overall largely in line with the past 5-auction average: bid-cover of 2.63x (5-auction average 2.56x) and primary dealer takedown 17.0% (15.5% avg).
• Indirects took a relatively high 70.7% (66.6% avg), the highest in 8 auctions and a potential signal of foreign demand for the Bond - with directs taking a lesser 12.3% (18.0% avg).

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 05/20 $4B *ADB 5Y SOFR+42
• 05/21 $2B #Turkiye 7Y 7.45%
• 05/21 $1.5B OKB 3Y +34
• 05/21 $1.25B *Kommunalbanken +5Y SOFR+49
• 05/21 $1B Finnvera WNG 5Y SOFR+53a
• 05/21 $Benchmark Citibank 2Y +58, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +78, 5Y SOFR
• 05/21 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual Life 30Y +135a
• 05/21 $Benchmark BPCE 6NC5 +150a, 11NC10 +175a