RUSSIA: Putin-Ceasefire Is Right & We Support It, But Lots Of Questions Remain

Mar-13 15:58

Speaking in a press conference alongside Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the situation of the war in Ukraine and the prospect of a ceasefire and peace talks. Claims that "We agree to stop fighting in Ukraine but it should lead to a long-standing peace." 

  • Claiming that the situation in the Kursk region - subject to a Ukrainian incursion since last summer - is 'fully under Russian control', Putin claims that 'for Ukraine it will be good to reach a 30-day ceasefire in such circumstances.'
  • Comes as Politico reports that US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff will meet with Putin later tonight to discuss the US-Ukraine talks that took place in Saudi Arabia earlier this week and the proposed short-term ceasefire.
  • Putin: 'If there is a ceasefire, it's not clear how the situation will develop in Kursk and elsewhere...Why do they need 30-day ceasefire, for mobilisation or weapon supplies to Ukraine? There are a lot of questions, such as who will control the ceasefire, the front is almost 2,000KM long?'.
  • Says 'the ceasefire itself is right and we will support it, but there are questions to be discussed'.
  • Putin: 'If the US and Russia agree on energy cooperation, then a gas pipeline for Europe could be provided...It will be beneficial for Europe thanks to cheap Russian gas.'
  • Putin: 'The situation on the front is fast-chainging, we will agree next steps on conflict taking into account developments on the front'. 

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Huge March'25 2Y Buy

Feb-11 15:43
  • +28,500 TUH5 102-22.38, byt through 102-22 post time offer at 1027:53ET, DV01 $ 1.0M. The 2Y contract trades 102-22.12 last (-1.5)

EGBS: Little Reprieve From Syndication Pricing, BTP/Bund Widens 2bps

Feb-11 15:36

The pricing of today’s 15-year BTP and dual-tranche EU-bond syndications provided little reprieve for major EGB futures. BTPs have followed Bunds lower through the day (-83 ticks at 119.90), having tested support at the 20-day EMA (119.87). 

  • The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has widened 2bps to ~111bps, even as European equities extend higher. Today’s syndication saw books in excess of E133bln for the E13bln sold. A reminder that 3/7-year supply is also due on Thursday.
  • OATs lightly underperform semi-core peers following today’s 30-year syndication mandate. We thought the syndication would come in w/c 24 Feb, but had flagged risks of a transaction this week. We pencil in a E8-10bln transaction size.
  • Note that the 10-year OAT/Bund spread screens at 78bps (1bp wider today) owing to a BBG OAT benchmark change.

GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Feb-11 15:30

The DMO has announced it will be looking forward to sell GBP1.75bln of the 4.00% Oct-63 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BMF9LF76) at its auction next Tuesday, February 18.

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