EM ASIA CREDIT: PTTEP Treasury (PTTEPT, Baa1/NR/BBB+) - Thai outlook to negative
"*MOODY'S DECISION TO CHANGE THAILAND'S OUTLOOK IS RUSHED: GOVT" - BBG
Moody's last night affirmed the Government of Thailand's Baa1 issuer rating, while also changing the Outlook from Stable to Negative. The rational being that U.S. tariffs will, now and potentially after the 90-day pause, negatively impact an economy that is already trending lower.
The Thai economy is directly exposed to the U.S. via exports, which represent around 3% of GDP according to the OECD, as well as indirectly through the knock-on impacts from other countries in the region.
The Thai government is making a valid point with regards to the rating action, discussions with the U.S. could change the landscape near-term. In terms of broad sentiment, the Thai Board of Investment reported today that Q1 foreign direct investment applications were 62% higher YoY to THB267bn, though we note Q2 numbers will better reflect the direction of travel.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 31 March, 2025 (1/2)
The EFSF has released an RFP, Germany, Spain and France are all due to hold conventional auctions whilst Finland will hold an ORI operation this week. There is also the potential for Austrian and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E30.6bln, slightly lower than last week’s E32.1bln.
- The EFSF issued an RFP last Wednesday regarding an upcoming syndicated transaction. We had been looking for a second syndication of the year between March and the first half of April, so this isn’t a huge surprise. The first syndication of the year raised E7bln raised in January in a dual-tranche transaction. We don’t have a strong conviction surrounding what will be on offer, but we expect the transaction to take place either today or tomorrow.
- Tomorrow, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22080).
- On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
STIR: SFRM5 Lifted
SFRM5 paper paid 95.960 on ~9.8K, with ~1.5K trading at 95.965 on the follow.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C March 31, 2025
France, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E15.9bln in first round operations, down from E21.4bln last week.
- This afternoon, France will come to the market with up to a combined E7.8bln of the following BTFs on offer: E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Jul 9, 2025 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 15-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 25-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 51-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow, Belgium will look to sell to a combined E2.4-2.8bln of the following TCs: An indicative E0.8bln of the 3-month Jul 10, 2025 TC, an indicative E1.0bln of the new 6-month Oct 16, 2025 TC and an indicative E0.8bln of the 12-month Mar 12, 2026 TC.
- Also tomorrow, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Jul 3, 2025 bills.
- On Wednesday, Greece will come to the market with E500mln of the new 13-week Jul 4, 2025 GTB on offer.
- Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Jul 4, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month Oct 3, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Apr 10, 2025 EU-bill.
