FRANCE: PS Opts For Narrow Primary, Risking Splits In Centre-Left Pre-2027
Members of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) voted against a proposal from the party's First Secretary, Olivier Faure, on 9 July, regarding the process of picking a candidate for the 2027 presidential election. Faure had sought to bring about a wide-ranging primary that any supporters of the centre-left could enter for a two-euro fee, with a broad field of candidates intended to boost the bloc's chances in the first round. However, PS members backed the alternative, which only allows candidates from the PS and "parties recognising themselves as part of the socialist bloc," such as prominent MEP Raphael Glucksmann's Place Publique, to run and only PS party members to cast a ballot.
- The lack of a broad centre-left primary means that the winner of the socialist primary will be tasked with bringing together the broader bloc and gaining support of other members of the 'New Popular Front' such as the environmentalist Ecologists and left-wing Communists via negotiation rather than in a primary.
- The limiting of the vote to just the PS/associates is viewed as a boon to Glucksmann. Opinion polls show him as the centre-left candidate drawing the greatest support. While Faure is believed to harbour his own presidential ambitions, it is former President Francois Hollande who is the most likely potential PS candidate to challenge Glucksmann.
- The lack of a wider primary could further split the centre-left/left. The inclusion of the Ecologists could have widened the potential pool of supporters, but some within Marine Tondelier's party favour siding with the far-left La France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, rather than the PS.
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SWEDEN: New 3-year EUR Benchmark: Final Terms
- Size: E2bln (The NDO aimed to raise SEK19bln from foreign currency issuance as per its May borrowing report. At current EURSEK levels, this would have corresponded to around E1.75bln).
- Books above EU7.5b (including JLM interest): Leads
- Spread: MS-5bps (Guidance was MS-3 Area)
- Maturity: June 18, 2029
- Coupon: Full first
- Settlement: June 18, 2026
- ISIN: XS3408819749
- Bookrunners: BNPP, Danske, SEB, Swedbank
Source; Bloomberg/MNI Colour
IRELAND: Fiscal Advisory Council Takes A Critical Stance On Strong Finances
This morning, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council released its bi-annual Fiscal Assessment Report
- The report notes that Ireland remains “heavily reliant on corporation tax paid by a handful of foreign-owned multinationals. Excluding excess corporation tax, an underlying deficit of €11 billion (3% of GNI*) is forecast for this year.”
- The Council notes that “the planned pace of net spending growth is faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy” and that “only €1 out of every €6 collected will be set aside, with the remaining €5 used for ongoing spending commitments”
- The implication of this is a higher borrowing requirement to finance planned contributions to savings funds.
- The report concludes by recommending Ireland adopts a domestic guide/rule to manage medium-term finances.
It’s not too surprising to see a fiscal advisory board take a critical view on public finances, even if Ireland’s headline metrics are extremely strong relative to Eurozone peers. Reliance on corporate tax receipts is a known quantity, so should already be embedded in market pricing.
Although increased borrowing to finance saving seems counter-intuitive, it should be viewed in the context of attractive domestic bond yields relative to German counterparts (the 10-year IRISH/Bund spread is just ~17bps at typing) and the expected return on SWF investments.
Figure 1: Ireland vs Germany Curve (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
US INFLATION: RPT - MNI US CPI Preview: Monthly Moderation But Still Too High
Re-upping the MNI US CPI Preview before today’s 0830ET/1330BST release. https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jun2026_60d51aa23f.pdf
- Core CPI seen at 0.23% M/M in May (a median of 14 unrounded estimates, range 0.17-0.30)
- It points to downside risk to the rounded 0.3% M/M in the broader Bloomberg survey
- Headline CPI looks more in line with a median unrounded 0.51% vs a rounded 0.5% M/M
