OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Gains Considered Corrective
Jun-14 10:32
- On the commodity front, the bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal continues to challenge trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1962.6. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and resume the downtrend. This would open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are trading higher today. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a bearish threat remains present. The recent pullback from resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high, reinforces a bearish theme and Monday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of resistance at $75.06 is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at $71.12, the 20-day EMA.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Primary Uptrend In Gold Remains Intact
May-15 10:25
- On the commodity front, Gold is trading below its recent highs but trend conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5 on Aug 2020. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have pulled back from recent highs. The recovery that started May 4 is considered corrective and the move higher allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Empire Mfg, TIC Flows, Fed Speak
May-15 10:22
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- May-15 0730 Atlanta Fed Bostic on CNBC
- May-15 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee on CNBC
- May-15 0830 Empire Manufacturing (10.8, -4.0)
- May-15 0845 Atlanta Fed Bostic, welcome remarks financial markets conf
- May-15 0915 MN Fed Kashkari, moderated discussion, transportation conf
- May-15 1130 US Tsy $57B 13W, $51B 26W bill auctions
- May-15 1400 Atlanta Fed Bostic on Bbg TV
- May-15 1500 Atlanta Fed Bostic, financial markets conf, Q&A
- May-15 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows ($71.0B, --)
- May-15 1600 Total Net TIC Flows ($28.0B, --)
- May-15 1700 Fed Gov Cook, commencement address Berkley
STIR FUTURES: Fed Rate Path Nudges Higher Ahead Of Fedspeak Deluge
May-15 10:21
- Fed Fund implied rates are marginally higher after the weekend. Vice Chair nominee Jefferson late Fri saw the Fed on track to bring inflation down but noted the little progress in core inflation, whilst Barkin (’24 voter) told MNI he sees it appropriate to hold rates where they are but is “very open” to more hikes should the data tell a different story.
- Cumulative moves from 5.08% effective: +2.5bp Jun (+1bp), -6bp Jul (+1bp), -21bp Sep (+1.5bp), -44bp Nov (+1.5bp), -69bp Dec (+1bp) and -92bp Jan (+1bp).
- An impressive 4 x Bostic (’24) today starting 0730ET, plus Goolsbee (’23) at 0830ET, Kashkari (’23) at 0915ET before Gov Cook (voter) at 1700ET gives a commencement address which likely limits mon pol discussions. Bostic last spoke Apr 20, Kashkari May 11 Goolsbee spoke May 12.
Source: Bloomberg
