OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S/T Trend Theme In Oil Futures Still Bearish

MNI's preview of the June FOMC is here:

• At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC will unanimously maintain the Fed funds rate range at 3.50-3.75% for a 4th consecutive meeting, while also making a meaningful pivot on the policy stance.
• The Statement's outright bias toward future policy easing (which has been in place since January 2024) will be removed in favor of more two-sided forward guidance, or more likely, no guidance at all.
• The SEP will also substantially raise forecasts for end-2026 inflation, a shift accompanied with a Dot Plot that shows no cuts by end-year, with more would-be hikers than cutters. There is a good chance the median participant will see no easing through 2027.
• The press conference will be one of the most anticipated in years, with Warsh potentially laying out his reform agenda.
• While the new Chair may portray a more dovish outlook on inflation than the median FOMC member, those looking for a clear steer on upcoming rate decisions are very likely to be disappointed given his disdain for forward guidance.
• MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Jun 15

• RES 4: 1.4095 1.236 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing    
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 2025
• RES 2: 1.4042 1.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 1: 1.4024 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3969 @ 16:39 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.3899 Low Jun 10  
• SUP 2: 1.3856 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3792 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3731 Low May 20 

The current uptrend in USDCAD remains intact and Thursday’s rally highlights a resumption of the bull cycle. Note that the move higher confirms a clear break of resistance at 1.3967, the Mar 31 high. This strengthens a bullish theme and paves the way for an extension towards 1.4051, the Nov 28 2025 high. Key support lies at 1.3792, the 50-day EMA. The first important support is at 1.3856, the 20-day EMA.    

• RES 4: 0.7278 May 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 2: 0.7201 High May 29 
• RES 1: 0.7111 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7053 @ 16:37 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.6979 Low Jun 11
• SUP 2: 0.6968 Low Apr 8 
• SUP 3: 0.6938 76.4% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7 

A short-term bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in play. The pair is trading below the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7111. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 0.6938, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the bear cycle since Jun 5 could still be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. First key resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA.