OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Resistance In WTI
Jun-04 10:46
* On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week's gains reinforce c...
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US TSYS: Spring Holidays Dampens Volumes, Focus on Midweek FOMC
May-05 10:43
- Treasuries are running mixed on very light overnight volumes (TYM5 <190k) with multiple Spring holidays around the globe: Japan, China, HK, South Korea, as well as the UK, EU is open however.
- Focus on Wednesday's FOMC rate annc at 1400ET. The FOMC is expected to extend its series of rate holds to a third meeting in May, keeping the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% while maintaining its forward guidance in the Statement.
- Monday data (prior, est): S&P Global US Services PMI final (51.4, 51.2), Composite (51.2, 51.2) at 0945ET; ISM Services Index (50.8, 50.3), Prices Paid (60.9, 61.4), New Orders (50.4, 50.0) & Employment (46.2, 46.0) at 1000ET.
- US Treasury auctions: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET followed by $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CND9) at 1300ET.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y contract trades +3.5 at 111-08.5 (yld 4.3121, +.0038), lower half of narrow overnight range (111-06 low, 111-13.5 high). Curves twist steeper with Bonds lagging mildly firmer 2s-10s: 2s10s +2.636 at 50.868, 5s30s +2.664 at 89.544.
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index lower (-4.32 at 1220.19), Crude weaker (WTI -.70 at 57.59), Gold surges to 3313.22 (+72.73).
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Services/Comp PMIs, ISM Services, 3Y Note
May-05 10:20
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 5-May 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI final (51.4, 51.2), Comp (51.2, 51.2)
- 5-May 1000 ISM Services Index (50.8, 50.3), ISM Prices Paid (60.9, 61.4)
- 5-May 1000 ISM Services New Orders (50.4, 50.0), Employ (46.2, 46.0)
- 5-May 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions
- 5-May 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CND9)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resistance Remains Intact
May-05 10:14
- In FX, a corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play. The trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1264. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
- The latest pullback in GBPUSD is considered corrective. A bearish tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Support to watch lies at 1.3225, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing.
- Recent gains in USDJPY resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA, undermining the bear trend. However, price action remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.60. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing.
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