OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-21 10:46
* On the commodity front, despite the latest pullback - a correction - a bull cycle in Gold remain...
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US TSYS: Potential Trump Comments And Fed Regulatory Conference Headline
Jul-22 10:42
- Treasuries trade modestly bear steeper but remain within yesterday’s range, amidst thin volumes.
- It’s another quieter docket today before the calendar picks up towards the end of the week, although any regulatory remarks from a Fed conference could be of note.
- What’s more, President Trump has a busier schedule today, where we can expect comments from his meeting with the President of the Philippines (greeting 1100ET, meeting itself with White House press pool 1115ET).
- Cash yields are 0-1.5bp higher on the day.
- Curves are elevated by recent standards but remain within ranges, including 2s10s at 52.9bp (+1bp) and 5s30s at 103.8bp (+0.8bp).
- TYU5 trades at 111-01+ (-04+) on light cumulative volumes of 210k.
- It has eased a little further away from yesterday’s slowly found high of 111-09+, what’s now seen as initial resistance before a more notable 111-13+ (Jul 10 high). Whilst lower on the day, the contract still holds the shift away from key support at 110-08+ (Jul 14/16 lows).
- Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Jul (0830ET), Richmond Fed mfg Jul (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: Bowman on CNBC (0730ET), Powell welcome remarks at regulatory conference (0830ET), Bowman fireside chat with Sam Altman at the same conference (1300ET) – see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
EQUITIES: European Stocks Hit New Lows into NY Hours on Tech Underperformance
Jul-22 10:35
- European equity markets head into the NY crossover at the day's lowest levels - pressuring the DAX future to trade with losses of 1%. US futures are steadier given the late sell-off after the European close yesterday, but tech names are clearly underperforming: The NASDAQ-100 future is off 0.25% while the Dow Jones is flat.
- NVIDIA shares are off 0.8% pre-market and the European semiconductors subsector is the poorest performer on the continent. Infineon Tech are off near 4% following NXP's after-market earnings report yesterday. The company met revenue expectations but the outlook missed forecast and may be a precursor to a tough quarter for tech names. NXP shares remain off by near 6% pre-market.
- Fed's Powell is set to give welcoming remarks at 0830ET, and while he'll steer clear of monetary policy inside the pre-meeting media black, Fed regulation is becoming an increasingly political topic. Not directly linked but a latest example was US Tsy Sec Bessent on X yesterday: "Today in a CNBC interview, I called for a review of the Federal Reserve [and] its non-monetary policy operations."
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Mfg/Non-Mfg, Non-Pol Fed Speak
Jul-22 10:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/22 0730 Fed VC Bowman on CNBC
- 07/22 0830 Fed Chair Powell opening remarks regulatory conf
- 07/22 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-25.0, --)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-7, -2)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-16, --)
- 07/22 1130 US Tsy $80B 6W bill auction
- 07/22 1300 Fed VC Bowman fireside chat large bank conf (no text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
