PERU: President Boluarte Formally Announces Date For 2026 Elections
Mar-26 12:46
- As had been widely expected, President Boluarte confirmed yesterday that the first round of the country’s 2026 general elections will be held on April 12, 2026. The polls will see the election of the President, 130 Deputies in the lower house and 60 Senators in the upper house, in what will be the first bicameral election in over 30 years.
- The election news comes as the President continues to suffer from very low public approval, with a recent March poll from Datum Internacional putting her disapproval rating at 93%.
- Amid continued concerns about public security, Boluarte also said yesterday that the government will not rest until it restores peace and order to the country. Last week, Congress voted to remove the interior minister, citing his inability to contain a spike in violence after a high-profile murder added to concerns about a rise in extortion rackets.
- Datawise, the calendar remains clear today, with the next tier-one release being March CPI inflation on April 1, followed by the BCRP MPC meeting on April 10.
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BOE: Dhingra reappointed for further 3 years on the MPC
Feb-24 12:13
- Dr Swati Dhingra has seen her term as an external MPC member extended by the standard 3 years to 8 August 2028. This was generally expected (most external members do renew their terms) but it's never certain until the confirmation. Her first term had been due to end in August this year. External MPC members can serve two 3-year terms.
- Given that she is one of (if not) the most dovish MPC members, it reduces the tail risk that she would be replaced by a more hawkish member and shift the balance of the MPC through H2-25.
US TSYS: Scaling Back Friday Highs, Lat Week PCE, GDP Data Focus
Feb-24 12:09
- Treasuries are trading moderately weaker, low end of narrow range as rates scale back a small portion of Friday's risk-off & data-driven rally.
- Treasury March'25 10Y futures are currently -5.5 at 109-16.5 (109-16L/109-21H), inside technical levels: initial resistance above at 109-24/110-00 (High Feb 21 / 7 and the bull trigger), support well below at 108-21.5 (Low Feb 19). 10Y yield +.0058 at 4.4371%, curves flatter: 2s10s -1.134 at 21.770, 5s30s -.378 at 40.051.
- Heavier volume despite Japan out on extended holiday weekend, ongoing quarterly futures roll from Mar'25 to Jun'25 (June takes lead this Friday), helps push TYH5 to 420k so far.
- Limited data today with regional Fed reporting (prior, est): Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.15, -0.05) at 0830ET, Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (14.1, 6.4) at 1030ET. No scheduled Fed speakers.
- The upcoming US economic calendar is backloaded, with the second release for Q4 national accounts on Thursday before the January PCE report on Friday. Real GDP growth is seen confirming what was at the time a softer than expected 2.3% annualized in Q4, whilst there will also be a first estimate for real GDI growth after 2.1% in Q3.
- US Treasury auctions resume $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET, $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMP3) at 1300ET.
- Cross asset update: Crude mildly higher (WTI +.08 at 70.48; Gold climbing 12.72 at 2948.75; Bbg US$ index little lower at 1285.86 (-.037).
EGB SYNDICATION: Spain 15-year mandate
Feb-24 12:08
"The KINGDOM OF SPAIN has mandated Barclays, Credit Agricole CIB, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, Nomura, and Societe Generale for a new Obligacion del Estado syndicated 15-year Euro benchmark maturing on 31st January 2041. The transaction will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions."
From market source.
- We wrote in our EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix that we looked for a Spanish syndication this week with either a long 15-year (2041) or 20-year maturity.
- We pencil in a wide E5-10bln range for the transaction. The lower end of the range in line with previous issues, the upper end more consistent with the large syndications we have seen both in Spain more recently and in EGBs more generally this year.
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