EUROZONE DATA: PPI Slightly Higher Than Expected Though Y/Y Remains in Deflation
Eurozone PPI in November printed slightly above expectations at -1.2% Y/Y (vs -1.4% consensus, -3.3% revised prior) and 1.6% M/M (vs 1.5% consensus, 0.4% prior). This is the nineteenth consecutive month of Y/Y deflation, though the highest reading since mid 2023 as energy base effects still work their way out of the Y/Y comparison. Note that excluding energy the PPI index level has been broadly unchanged since April whereas including energy it has been increasing since May.
- Three of the five sub-components saw Y/Y pickups, whilst one saw a marginal softening and one sub-component was unchanged.
- Energy producer prices fell at a further slower pace of 5.3% Y/Y (vs -11.2% in Oct and -11.6% in Sep).
- Intermediate goods also fell at a slower pace of 0.3% Y/Y (vs -0.5% in October) - the highest print of 2024 to date.
- Durable consumer goods prices softened marginally to rise 0.6% Y/Y (vs 0.7% prior).
- Non-durable consumer goods rose at the same pace as October printing 1.9% Y/Y.
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MNI: INVITE REMINDER: MNI Webcast with ECB's Philip Lane On Dec 18
You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Philip R. Lane, Chief Economist and Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
Details below:
- Topic of discussion: 'Eurozone economy and the ECB's monetary policy'
- Date: Wednesday 18 December
- Time: 9am - 1030am London; 10am - 1130am Frankfurt
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
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BONDS: Stabilising As Risk-Positive China-Driven Move Fades
Core global FI markets find a base as equities and crude oil tick away from session highs.
- Contained risk-positive move following China’s dovish monetary policy stance tweak starts to fade a little, as participants question how impactful it will be and have the feeling of “we’ve been here before.”
- TY, Bund & gilt futures stick within Friday’s ranges.
- Bund yields little changed across the curve.
- Gilts the outperformer at the 10-Year point, 1bp tighter vs. Bunds, while Tsys are 1bp wider vs. Bunds.
- Peripherals and OATs still 0.5-1.0bp tighter to Bunds on the risk-positive move seen this morning, although spreads are off session lows.
- We have already noted that the impact of China’s monetary policy stance tweak will need to be assessed via the data seen in the coming months.
- Chinese focus now moves to this week’s CEWC (more on that in earlier bullets).
