JAPAN DATA: PPI Close To Expectations, Import Prices Up M/M For 2nd Month

TYU5 is trading 111-24+, down 0-04 from its close. 

• The US 2-year yield opens around 3.766%.
• The US 10-year yield opens around 4.285%.
• MNI US CPI Preview: High Early Bar To September Fed Hold. The CPI report for July is released on Tuesday Aug 12, at 0830ET. Consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in June and unrounded analyst estimates broadly echo this with a median 0.32% M/M. It would mark a further acceleration from 0.23% M/M in June and 0.13% M/M in May for its fastest pace since January, with the latest firming seen coming from core goods inflation doubling to 0.4% M/M. 
• (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries snapped a three-day losing streak as investors prepare for fresh US inflation data that may help determine the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest-rate cuts.
• The 10-year yield had a powerful move lower in reaction to the NFP data, breaking below its 4.30% pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%. This now turns momentum lower in yields and you could expect buyers of treasuries on bounces back towards 4.30/35% now looking to initially test the 4.10% area. 
• Data/Events: NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, Federal Budget Balance

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed lower on Friday, -10 compared to settlement levels.

• With the US calendar light on Monday ahead of a heavy slate of data, the markets treaded water. Headlining is the key CPI release on Tuesday where the numbers will help provide some guidance for the Fed's policy path.
• MNI - The CPI report for July is released on Tuesday Aug 12, at 0830ET. Consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in June and unrounded analyst estimates broadly echo this with a median 0.32% M/M. It would mark a further acceleration from 0.23% M/M in June and 0.13% M/M in May for its fastest pace since January, with the latest firming seen coming from core goods inflation doubling to 0.4% M/M.
• Bloomberg -- "The new chief of Japan's financial regulator has a message for regional banks: don't rely on rising interest rates to fix your problems. Local lenders have been counting on last year's scrapping of negative rates to help turn them around, blaming the policy for crushing profitability. But the new era of higher rates will spark fresh competition for depositors at a time when technology is transforming the industry, according to Financial Services Agency Commissioner Yutaka Ito."
• Today, the local calendar will see Money Stock.

ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) are slightly weaker after a muted close from US tsys on Monday.

• MNI - The RBA's Monetary Policy Board is unlikely to surprise economists and the market again in August when its decision is announced today. Bloomberg consensus is unanimous forecasting a 25bp rate cut to 3.60% given the further moderation in underlying inflation in Q2 towards the band mid-point
• This month is likely to be more suitable than last month, possibly resulting in a 9-0 vote after July's 6-3 split in favour of holding.
• The tone of the decision and Governor Bullock's press conference is likely to reiterate the bank's gradual and cautious approach to easing. We expect any further cuts to coincide with forecasting meetings.
• ACGBs are 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -3bps.
• The bills strip is -2 to -3 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 97% probability, with a cumulative 60bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$1000mn of the 2.75% 2 1 November 2029 bond on Friday.